Carrarese vs Mantova: match statistics

Mantova come into this match in clearly better form, having won 3 of their last 5 games and averaging 1.6 goals per match. Carrarese, meanwhile, have failed to win during the same period, recording 1 draw and 4 defeats while scoring just 1 goal. The hosts have conceded 8 goals across those five matches, whereas Mantova, despite conceding 9, have consistently been able to respond with attacking efficiency. Carrarese’s higher league position—6th compared with Mantova’s 13th—does not offset such a significant difference in current form and points return: 0.2 versus 1.8 points per match. An away win for Mantova is therefore the most likely outcome, although their leaky defence gives the hosts a chance to score.

The strongest signal is Carrarese’s very poor recent scoring form, with just 1 goal scored in their last five matches—an average of 0.2 per game. BTTS - Yes occurred in only 20% of the last five matches for both Carrarese and Mantova, clearly supporting a scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Mantova have scored far more regularly, averaging 1.6 goals and recording 8 goals in total during this period, but their attacking output does not eliminate the risk of another home clean sheet against Carrarese. Carrarese do have an average xG of 1.25, while Mantova concede an average of 1.8 goals, yet the hosts’ actual goal production remains significantly below their chance-creation potential. A Mantova win to nil, a low home-goal tally, or another BTTS - No outcome therefore appears more likely.

Carrarese have scored just 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while conceding 8. Mantova are significantly more effective in attack, scoring 8 times during this period, but their matches are not necessarily open, as both teams found the net in only 20% of their last five appearances. The average xG figures are 1.25 for Carrarese and 1.49 for Mantova, suggesting potential for around 2–3 goals rather than a very high-scoring game. Although 60% of Mantova’s recent matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, the hosts’ poor attacking output limits the probability of four goals being scored, making Under 3.5 goals the best option.

The strongest scenario is for Mantova to lead at the break and win the match, as Carrarese have lost 4 of their last 5 games and have not recorded a single victory during that period. The hosts have averaged just 0.2 goals per match while conceding 1.6, whereas Mantova have scored 1.6 goals on average and won 3 of their last 5 fixtures. Carrarese failed to score before half-time in five matches and were trailing at the break in 60% of cases; Mantova were leading at half-time in 40% of their games, averaging 0.8 goals scored. After the break, the hosts still show limited attacking output at 0.2 goals, while the visitors average 0.8, which favors them maintaining or extending their lead. The alternative is a draw at half-time followed by a Mantova win, but the clear disparity in form and Carrarese's first-half impotence provide stronger support for the 2/2 outcome.