Cavalry FC vs Forge FC: match statistics

Cavalry FC are unbeaten at home, winning 71% of such matches and averaging 2.43 goals per game, while Forge FC score 1.88 goals away from home. The hosts create slightly lower-quality chances than their opponents (xG 1.85 vs. 1.92), but they limit opposition more effectively: their average xG conceded stands at 0.99, compared with Forge’s 1.15. Cavalry’s defence concedes just 0.57 goals per match at home, while Forge, despite winning 75% of their away fixtures, have failed to score in 13% of matches on the road. Both teams have identical records across their last five matches—2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat—but home advantage and Cavalry’s more effective attack give the hosts a slight edge.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Cavalry FC’s defence: the hosts concede just 0.43 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 71% of their games. Their season BTTS rate is only 14%, significantly lower than Forge FC’s 63% and the league average of 63%. Forge possess considerable attacking strength, scoring an average of 1.88 goals with an xG of 1.92, so an away goal is a genuine threat; however, Cavalry allow opponents just 0.85 xG per match. The last five meetings between the two teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases, but with each side conceding only 0.8 goals on average, there remains a significant risk that one team will fail to score. A No Goal outcome for one of the teams is therefore slightly more likely, primarily due to the hosts’ exceptionally solid defence.

Cavalry concede an average of just 0.43 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 71% of their games, which significantly limits Forge’s attacking potential. However, Forge have strong chance-creation metrics, with an average xG of 1.92 and 5.75 shots on target per match, so the visitors should make a meaningful contribution to the projected total of 2.15 goals. The hosts score an average of 1.14 goals, while Forge’s defence allows just 0.75 goals per match, making a high-scoring performance from Cavalry difficult to expect. This season, 86% of Cavalry’s matches and 62% of Forge’s games have ended with a maximum of three goals, and neither team has allowed an opponent to score more than two goals in a single match. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as even if Forge score, the hosts’ very solid defensive profile favours results such as 0:1, 1:1 or 1:0.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and after the final whistle, as Cavalry were level at the break in 57% of matches, compared with 63% for Forge. The hosts concede just 0.43 goals per match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 71% of games, which significantly limits Forge’s chances of capitalising on their high average of 1.88 goals scored. Forge have greater attacking potential, with an xG of 1.92 compared with Cavalry’s 1.61 and an average of 5.75 shots on target versus 4.57. However, Cavalry’s defence is particularly solid after the break, having yet to concede a goal in the second half. The teams’ last five matches produced identical figures of 40% draws and 1.6 points per game, further supporting the forecast of a closely contested encounter. The low average number of goals before half-time—0.57 in Cavalry matches and 0.75 in Forge matches—points to a cautious opening without a clear advantage for either side.