Coleraine vs Larne: match statistics

Coleraine have a slight home advantage and opened the season with a 3:1 victory, while Larne have yet to play a league match. In their last five games, both teams collected 7 points, each winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 2, so the difference in current form is not significant. The hosts scored 6 goals during this period, twice as many as Larne’s 3, indicating greater attacking potential. However, both defences remained vulnerable to mistakes: Coleraine conceded 11 goals in five matches, while Larne conceded 10. Coleraine’s higher league position—third compared with seventh—and more effective recent run of form support a narrow home win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Coleraine recorded both teams scoring in only 40% of their last 5 matches, while Larne did so in just 20%. The visitors averaged only 0.6 goals per game during this period, with an average xG of just 0.96, increasing the risk that they will fail to beat the goalkeeper. Although Coleraine conceded 2.2 goals per match, Larne scored only 3 goals in total across five appearances, making the visitors’ poor finishing the more significant limitation for a scenario in which both teams score. The league average for BTTS is 40%, also clearly below the level suggesting that both teams score frequently. The most likely outcome is that at least one side—primarily Larne—will finish the match without scoring.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as Coleraine conceded an average of 2.2 goals and Larne 2.0 goals per match in their last five games. Coleraine scored 6 goals during this period, while Larne managed just 3, but the weak defensive performances of both sides clearly raise the projected total goals. Coleraine’s average xG stands at 1.41, with Larne allowing 1.76 xG, while Larne generates 0.96 xG against 1.50 xG allowed by the hosts. At least 3 goals were scored in 80% of Coleraine’s last matches and 60% of Larne’s, but the low percentage of matches in which both teams scored—40% and 20%, respectively—limits confidence in Over 2.5 goals. The projected total of 2.80 goals gives a clear edge to the Over 1.5 line, which should also be covered in a one-sided game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as both teams have collected 7 points from their last 5 matches, recording identical returns of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats. In the first halves, each side averaged just 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Larne were level at the break in 40% of their recent matches. Coleraine took the lead before half-time more often—40% compared with Larne’s 20%—but both teams also lost 40% of their first halves, limiting the hosts’ advantage. After the break, Larne scored only 0.2 goals per match compared with Coleraine’s 0.8, but the hosts conceded as many as 1.4 goals, meaning Coleraine’s slight attacking edge does not provide a strong basis for backing them to win at full-time. Their balanced form and the visitors’ poor finishing point towards a cautious, even outcome: X/X.