Colwyn Bay vs Connah's Quay: match statistics

Connah's Quay sit 3rd and have won 5 of their 7 matches this season, while Colwyn Bay are ninth with a record of 3 wins and 3 defeats. The visitors are in excellent form: they have recorded 4 wins and a draw in their last five matches, scoring 14 goals, whereas the hosts have managed just 4 goals over the same period and lost 3 times. Away from home, Connah's Quay create significantly more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.89 compared with Colwyn Bay's 1.43 at home, while also averaging 18 shots and 6.67 shots on target per match. The visitors' defence also looks more reliable, conceding an average of 0.67 goals away from home against an xG against of 0.78, and allowing just 2 goals in their last five matches. Colwyn Bay have won all of their home matches so far without conceding a goal, but Connah's Quay's attacking edge and current form point towards an away victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Colwyn Bay have scored only 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 games and both teams scored in just 20% of those fixtures. Connah's Quay are currently very solid defensively: over the same period, they conceded 0.4 goals per match, allowed just 2 goals, and limited opponents to an average of only 0.72 xG. The hosts’ recent attacking xG of 1.24 is lower than the visitors’ average attacking xG of 2.00, while Colwyn Bay have recently conceded 1.8 goals per match. Connah's Quay should have a strong chance of scoring, but the visitors’ defensive form and the hosts’ poor finishing increase the probability that at least one team will fail to score.

Connah's Quay are in excellent form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, while their average xG stood at 2.00. Over the same period, Colwyn Bay scored only 0.8 goals per game and lost 3 of their 5 fixtures, although they also conceded an average of 1.8 goals. The visitors should therefore create more chances, supported by their average of 18.0 shots and 6.67 shots on target per game, compared with 16.5 and 6.0 for the hosts. At the same time, both teams have posted solid defensive numbers throughout the season, with average xG conceded standing at 0.82 for Colwyn Bay and 0.78 for Connah's Quay, while 75% of the hosts' matches and 67% of the visitors' games finished with Under 3.5 goals. The projected total of 2.55 goals points to an edge for the Under 3.5 goals market, with room for an away win without the need for an open, high-scoring game.

Connah's Quay are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 2.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded over their last five matches, remaining unbeaten, while Colwyn Bay have averaged 0.8 goals and lost three of their five games. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last matches, had not been behind after 45 minutes in any of them, and kept a clean sheet before half-time in all five appearances. Over the same period, the hosts were trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches, averaged just 0.4 goals before the break, and failed to score in the first half in as many as 60% of games. Connah's Quay have also maintained their high scoring efficiency after the break, averaging 1.6 goals in second halves compared with Colwyn Bay's 0.4, making the most likely outcome an HT/FT 2/2: the visitors lead at half-time and win the match, without a turnaround.