Connah's Quay vs Penybont: match statistics
Connah's Quay vs Penybont: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Connah's Quay played Penybont in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 3 October 2026. Venue: Deeside College Stadium. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Connah's Quay: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Penybont: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Connah's Quay scores 2.45 and concedes 0.73 goals per match. Penybont scores 2.00 and concedes 0.82. League average: 3.34 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Connah's Quay 55%, Penybont 64%. Over 2.5: Connah's Quay 73%, Penybont 64%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Connah's Quay has higher xG: 1.76 vs 1.43. Connah's Quay: 13.0 shots per match, Penybont: 11.0.
Match halves
Connah's Quay: half-time lead 73%, second-half goals 1.18. Penybont: half-time lead 64%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Connah's Quay: 16-30 (5 goals). Penybont: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.34 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Penybont head into the match on the back of five consecutive wins, while Connah's Quay have won 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors remain unbeaten this season and have won 80% of their away matches, giving them a slight edge despite playing on their opponents' turf. Both teams regularly create good chances: the hosts average 1.80 xG at home, compared with the visitors' 1.82 xG away; Penybont also average 6.6 shots on target per match, versus 5.83 for Connah's Quay. However, the hosts have a strong defensive case: they concede an average of just 0.5 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while the visitors concede 0.8 goals away. This defensive solidity increases the chances of a draw, but Penybont's winning streak and the visitors' average of 2.6 goals scored away point to a narrow preference for the away side.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have a high rate of matches in which both sides score: 67% for Connah's Quay and 60% for Penybont, compared with 54% league-wide. In their last five matches, this scenario occurred in 60% of games for each team, with the home side scoring an average of 2.0 goals and the away side 2.4. Penybont show greater attacking strength, averaging 1.82 xG and 6.6 shots on target per match, compared with Connah's Quay's 1.10 xG and 2.83 shots on target. Solid defences pose a risk to the BTTS - Yes pick, with the teams conceding an average of 0.83 and 0.80 goals respectively. However, their BTTS records and scoring form give a moderate edge to the outcome in which both teams find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Penybont score an average of 2.6 goals per match, compared with 1.5 for Connah's Quay, pointing to at least two goals. Across their last five matches, the teams averaged 2.4 and 2.0 goals per match, respectively, and in both cases 60% of those games finished Over 2.5 goals. The visitors create more chances: their xG is 1.82 compared with the hosts' 1.10, and they average 6.6 shots on target against 2.83. With Over 1.5 goals landing in 80% of Penybont matches and 67% of Connah's Quay matches, this line offers a stronger signal than the more demanding 2.5-goal threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is a realistic outcome, as Connah's Quay have not conceded in the first half of any of their last 5 matches and went into the break level in 3 of them. However, Penybont have averaged 1.6 first-half goals across their last 5 games and were leading at the break in 3, so the away side to lead at half-time remains almost equally likely. Over the full match, the attacking advantage favours Penybont: the visitors average 2.6 goals compared with the hosts' 1.5, while their average xG is 1.82 versus 1.10. Penybont have won all 5 of their last matches, while Connah's Quay have won 3 of 5; in addition, season data shows the visitors average 0.8 goals after half-time compared with 0.5 for the hosts. Therefore, I rate the scenario in which the hosts hold the match level at the break before the visitors win after half-time marginally highest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Connah's Quay | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Penybont is 50% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 3 pts / match - Penybont
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Connah's Quay is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
2.45 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 2 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay is 12% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.73 goals / match - Connah's Quay · 0.82 goals / match - Penybont
Connah's Quay scores in 100% of matches (11 of 11 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 36% (4 of 11 matches).
Penybont scores in 91% of matches (10 of 11 matches), while Connah's Quay keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Connah's Quay
Over / Under - Penybont
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Connah's Quay is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.45 pts / match - Connah's Quay · 2.18 pts / match - Penybont
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Connah's Quay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 73% of matches and wins 73%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 64% of matches and wins 73%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Connah's Quay
Penybont
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Connah's Quay | Liga | Penybont | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.18 | 3.34 | ▼ 2.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 55% | 53% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 73% | 61% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 24% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 78% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 91% | 86% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Connah's Quay 3 - 1 - 0 Penybont. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Connah's Quay 1:0 Penybont. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Connah's Quay and Penybont?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Connah's Quay won 3, Penybont won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
Connah's Quay score 2.45 goals per game on average and Penybont 2.00. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.34 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Connah's Quay's matches and 64% of Penybont's.
What form are Connah's Quay and Penybont in?
Over the last 5 games Connah's Quay have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Penybont 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Connah's Quay vs Penybont?
The statistical background for Connah's Quay vs Penybont — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.