Cumbayá vs LDU Portoviejo: match statistics

Cumbayá have a clearly stronger home profile: they average 1.36 goals per match, while LDU Portoviejo average just 0.64 away from home. The visitors have lost as many as 73% of their away matches and won only 9%, with an away goal difference of -11. At home, Cumbayá concede an average of 1.09 goals, with xG against standing at 0.99, whereas LDU’s defence allows an average of 1.64 goals and 1.51 xG. However, Cumbayá’s poor attacking efficiency in their last five matches must be taken into account: they have scored just 3 goals and drawn four times. The hosts’ very high 64% draw rate increases the likelihood of the points being shared, but home advantage and LDU’s away struggles point towards a narrow Cumbayá victory.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as the seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored is only 27% for Cumbayá and 36% for LDU Portoviejo, compared with a league average of 35%. Cumbayá concede just 0.36 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 64% of fixtures, which significantly limits the visitors’ scoring chances, with LDU Portoviejo averaging only 0.64 goals. LDU Portoviejo failed to score in 55% of their matches, and have scored just 2 goals in total across their last five appearances, averaging only 0.4 per game. Current form further supports this selection: BTTS occurred in 20% of Cumbayá’s last five matches and in 0% of LDU Portoviejo’s matches. Although the hosts create an average xG of 1.40, the poor finishing efficiency of both teams at 8%, combined with the low league average of 1.85 goals, favours a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The match profile clearly points to a limited number of goals: Cumbayá recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 100% of their matches, while the figure for LDU Portoviejo stands at 82%. The hosts are particularly solid defensively at home, conceding just 0.36 goals on average and keeping a clean sheet in 64% of matches, while the visitors score only 0.64 goals per game on average. The current attacking form of both teams is also poor, with Cumbayá averaging 0.6 goals per match and LDU Portoviejo 0.4 over their last five games. Although the visitors’ weaker defense, conceding 1.64 goals on average, gives the hosts a chance of a result around 1-0 or 2-0, the expected total of 1.85 goals remains well below the four-goal line. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick, further supported by the fact that the league averages only 1.85 goals per match.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Cumbayá were level after 45 minutes in 8 of their 11 home matches, or 73%, while both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their last five games. The hosts are also very solid defensively before the break: they have conceded no goals at home, whereas LDU Portoviejo have conceded an average of 1.00 goal in the first halves. After the interval, Cumbayá’s advantage should translate into a decisive result, as they average 2.00 points per home game, while their opponents average just 0.45 points away from home and lose 73% of such matches. The difference in quality is also reflected in the hosts’ defence, which concedes an average of 0.36 goals per match compared with Portoviejo’s 1.64. The X/1 scenario is therefore stronger than 1/1, as Cumbayá often start cautiously but are clearly better positioned to settle the outcome in the second half.