Difaâ El Jadida vs UTS Rabat: match statistics

Both teams have earned 7 points in their last 5 matches, so the case for the home side rests primarily on their advantage in chance creation. Difaâ El Jadida average 1.01 xG and 3.33 shots on target per match at home, while UTS Rabat manage 0.69 xG and just 0.5 shots on target away. The visitors concede only 0.5 goals per away match, but allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.48 xG, giving the hosts an opportunity to break down their defense. However, the risk for Difaâ is significant: they concede an average of 3 goals at home and have lost 2 of their 3 matches. A home win is therefore the most likely outcome, but their defensive problems mean a draw or an away win cannot be ruled out.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is that in UTS Rabat’s away matches so far, both teams have failed to score in every game, while this has happened in 33% of Difaâ El Jadida’s home matches. The visitors average just 0.5 goals away from home, register 0.5 shots on target per match, and have failed to score in 50% of those games. The hosts have also struggled in front of goal at home: they average 0.67 goals and have been kept scoreless in 67% of their matches. Although Difaâ’s last five games produced BTTS - Yes in 80% of cases, the figure for UTS was only 20%, so this signal is not enough to outweigh the evidence of both teams’ poor attacking output. It is therefore more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Difaâ El Jadida's home matches have averaged 1.34 goals, while UTS Rabat's away matches have averaged 1.00, with both samples pointing to a low-scoring game. Neither team has recorded a match with at least 4 goals in these fixtures, which is the strongest indication in favor of Under 3.5 goals. The hosts average 0.67 goals at home, while the visitors average 0.50 away; in addition, UTS average just 0.5 shots on target per match. Difaâ's last 5 matches have been significantly more high-scoring, averaging 4.8 goals, so I would not rule out 2 or 3 goals, but the 3.5 line offers a greater margin than 2.5. I estimate 2.12 total goals and an 83% probability of Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest, though uncertain, pick is for UTS Rabat to lead at the break and hold on to that advantage until full time. Difaâ El Jadida were trailing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals over that period, while UTS led at half-time in 2 of 5 matches and kept a clean sheet on 3 occasions. The case for the visitors holding any potential lead is strengthened by the fact that they have not conceded after the break in their away matches so far, and have conceded an average of just 0.2 goals in the second half across their last 5 matches. The risk of this selection is increased by the hosts’ average of 1.6 goals scored after the break in their last 5 matches, meaning a turnaround remains possible. UTS nevertheless have the edge based on their away results to date compared with their opponents’ home record: they have won 50% of those matches, versus Difaâ’s 33% home win rate.