Dinamo Zagreb vs Gorica: match statistics

Dinamo Zagreb remain unbeaten in the league, collecting 10 points from 4 matches, while Gorica have just 1 point after 5 rounds and have lost their last 4 games. At home, the hosts have won every match, averaging 3 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded, with an average xG of 2.72 compared to 0.73 xG allowed to opponents. Gorica have lost 100% of their away matches, concede an average of 2.5 goals and fail to score in 50% of games. Dinamo’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: 24.67 shots and 10.33 shots on target per match, compared to 14 and 3.5 respectively for Gorica. Although Dinamo’s last five matches have been less consistent, their 12:8 goal difference still clearly surpasses the visitors’ tally, with Gorica scoring just 2 goals during that period.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Gorica score only 0.50 goals per match on average and have managed just 0.4 goals across their last 5 fixtures. The visitors failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, lost four of their last five games and produced an xG of only 1.16 during this period, while Dinamo allowed opponents an xG of 0.93. Dinamo are in very good attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals and an xG of 2.27 over their last five matches, so the most likely scenario is that the hosts will score. However, Dinamo’s seasonal BTTS rate is 33% and Gorica’s is 50%, compared with the league average of 50%, which does not provide sufficiently strong grounds to expect both teams to score.

Dinamo have averaged 2.4 goals scored and generated 2.27 xG across their last five matches, while Gorica have conceded 1.8 goals and allowed opponents 1.77 xG over the same period. Gorica’s away defence remains particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per match and keeping no clean sheets. All of Gorica’s away matches to date have gone Over 1.5 goals, while the same has occurred in 67% of Dinamo’s home fixtures. Although Dinamo have averaged just 0.33 goals in their matches at home so far, their current attacking form is significantly stronger, as confirmed by the 12 goals scored in their last five appearances. Over 1.5 goals therefore has the strongest backing both in Dinamo’s recent attacking output and in the visitors’ defensive weaknesses.

The strongest scenario is Dinamo leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts averaged 2.4 goals across their last five fixtures, compared with just 0.4 for Gorica. The visitors lost 80% of those five matches, failed to win any, and were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of them. Dinamo averaged 1.2 goals before the break, while Gorica failed to score in this period and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts’ advantage remains evident after half-time: they average 1.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded in the second half, while Gorica drew the second half in all five of their last appearances. There is some risk of a draw at half-time, as Dinamo were leading at the break in only 20% of their recent matches, but Gorica’s poor finishing clearly strengthens the 1/1 pick.