Dunfermline Athletic vs Raith Rovers: match statistics

Raith Rovers sit 3rd, remain unbeaten after three rounds and have collected 7 points, while Dunfermline have 2 points with a record of 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. The visitors are clearly more clinical: away from home, they score an average of 2 goals per match with a 25% shot-conversion rate, whereas the hosts average 1 goal with a 13% conversion rate. The last five matches also favor Raith, who have won 3 games and conceded an average of 0.6 goals, while Dunfermline have recorded just one victory and conceded 5 goals. However, the hosts could still make life difficult for their opponents, as they average 62% possession at home and create chances worth 1.42 xG, compared with the visitors’ 1.23 xG away from home. Nevertheless, Raith’s stronger current run, greater efficiency in front of goal and perfect record in away matches point to an away win.

Raith Rovers score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Dunfermline average 1.5, with neither team having finished a league fixture without scoring. Despite this, Dunfermline have a very solid defence: they concede just 0.5 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 50% of games, and their average xG conceded is only 0.58. The hosts’ current attacking form is weaker, as they have scored an average of 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches and BTTS - Yes occurred in only 40% of their games. Raith also recorded BTTS in 40% of matches across their last 5 league rounds, while their defence conceded an average of 0.6 goals and 0.79 xG from opponents. With the league average for BTTS standing at just 33%, the slightly more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

Data from the last five matches clearly lowers goal expectations: Dunfermline averaged 0.6 goals, while Raith averaged 1.2, with only 20% of both teams’ matches featuring at least three goals. The average xG over this period stands at 1.28 for the hosts and 1.43 for the visitors, but Raith concede just 0.79 xG per match, limiting the opponent’s attacking potential. Dunfermline also have a 50% clean-sheet rate in the season data, while the league as a whole records only 13% of matches going Over 2.5 goals and averages 1.8 goals per game. Although Raith have scored 2.0 goals per match in the competition, the current form of both teams and the league’s low-scoring profile point to a result finishing below four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 is the strongest selection, with a substantial margin of safety against the projected total of 2.20 goals.

Raith Rovers are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, compared with Dunfermline’s 1.0. The hosts scored just 0.6 goals per game on average across these five matches and found the net only 0.2 times before the break, while Raith averaged 1.0 first-half goal. A draw at half-time is a realistic possibility, as Dunfermline were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their recent matches and Raith in 40%, although the visitors led at the break in as many as 60% of their games. After the interval, Raith’s advantage should increase, as the hosts conceded an average of 0.6 goals in second halves and recorded just one win in their last five matches. The HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by an away win best combines Dunfermline’s cautious start with Raith’s greater efficiency and superior record.