FA Šiauliai vs Kauno Žalgiris: match statistics

Kauno Žalgiris sit 2nd in the table, while FA Šiauliai are 9th, and the full-season record clearly favors the visitors: 15 wins and just 4 defeats compared with the hosts’ 4 victories and 17 losses. The difference is also reflected in their current form: the visitors have scored 12 goals, won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded just 1 goal during that run, whereas Šiauliai have failed to win any of those fixtures and have scored only 1 goal. Away from home, Kauno Žalgiris create chances worth an average xG of 1.73 and score 1.67 goals per match, while the hosts concede an average of 2.00 goals at home, with an xG against of 1.64. The visitors’ defense looks considerably more reliable, conceding an average of just 0.75 goals away from home and keeping a clean sheet in 42% of matches, while Šiauliai fail to score in 47% of their home fixtures. A draw remains possible given Kauno Žalgiris’ 42% away draw rate, but an away win is by far the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from current form: in their last 5 matches, FA Šiauliai have scored just 1 goal, averaging 0.2 per game, while Kauno Žalgiris have conceded only 1 goal over the same period. Both teams recorded BTTS in just 20% of their last five appearances, compared with the league average of 48%. Šiauliai have failed to score in 19% of their matches this season, while Kauno Žalgiris have kept a clean sheet in 42%, significantly strengthening the case that the hosts may fail to find the net. The visitors are highly effective in attack, averaging 2.4 goals across their last 5 matches with an xG of 1.92, so a one-sided scoring outcome for them is more likely than goals from both teams. Additionally, the Kauno Žalgiris defence is currently conceding an average of just 0.2 goals per match, with opponents' xG standing at 1.09, which limits the chances of the out-of-form hosts.

The latest form clearly favors Kauno Žalgiris: the visitors have scored 12 goals in five matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while conceding just 1. Over the same period, FA Šiauliai have scored only 1 goal, averaging 0.2, while conceding 7, and their average xG stands at 1.19 compared with 1.92 for their opponents. Kauno Žalgiris have been very solid defensively, allowing opponents an average of 1.09 xG across their last five appearances, making it difficult to assign the hosts a high goal contribution. Under 3.5 goals has landed in 83% of the visitors’ matches and 56% of the hosts’ games this season, while only 17% of Kauno Žalgiris matches have gone over the 3.5-goal line. Therefore, the strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected scoreline of approximately 0.55:1.85 primarily points to scenarios with one, two or three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kauno Žalgiris victory, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and did not lose any of them. Current form clearly favours the away side: Kauno Žalgiris averaged 2.4 goals scored and conceded just 0.2 per match in their last five appearances, while Šiauliai scored only 0.2 and conceded 1.4. The hosts do have very strong full-season first-half numbers, leading at the break in 69% of matches and averaging 1.38 goals scored, but they have failed to score before half-time in any of their last five games. After the interval, the visitors are particularly dangerous, averaging 1.6 goals across their last five second halves while conceding just 0.2, supporting a turnaround from a draw after the break. The chance of the visitors leading at half-time also remains high, but the frequent half-time draws recorded by both teams in their current form make X/2 the most probable outcome.