FAS vs Cacahuatique: match statistics

FAS is the clear favorite: at home they average 2.33 goals per match and win 81% of home fixtures, while Cacahuatique average 1.36 goals away and win 45% of their road games. The hosts create more and better chances – 12.33 average shots and 5.52 shots on target per match versus 8.23 shots and 4.55 on target for the visitors, and their home xG is 1.58 compared to the visitors’ 1.30 xG, which combined with conversion rates of 19% vs 17% results in a higher goal output. Defensively FAS also looks more reliable: they concede only 0.76 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 43% of games, whereas Cacahuatique concedes 1.18 goals on average away and have 32% clean sheets. Recent form confirms the home advantage — in the last five matches FAS scored 12 goals and average 2 points per game, while Cacahuatique managed only 4 goals and average 1 point per game. Based on this I tip a home win, estimating their chance at about 74%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 12%.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 59% (FAS) and 55% (Cacahuatique), averaging 57% and exceeding the league mean of 54%. xG figures show FAS produces 1.52 xG while conceding 1.59, and Cacahuatique produces 1.30 xG while conceding 1.48 — both sides generate roughly 1.3–1.6 xG per game. Additionally, FAS concedes on average 1.55 goals at home, while Cacahuatique scores on average 1.36 goals; shots on target stats 4.05 vs 4.55 and the visitors’ higher shot conversion 17% vs 11% increase the guests’ chance to score. In the last 5 matches FAS averaged 2.4 goals and had BTTS in 40% of games, whereas Cacahuatique averaged 0.8 goals and had BTTS in 60% of games, indicating mixed signals but an overall balance favoring Both Teams To Score. Considering the seasonal 59%/55%, xG in the 1.3–1.6 range and low clean sheet rates of 27% and 32%, I assess BTTS probability at 65% and No BTTS at 35%, therefore I recommend a 'yes' (BTTS - Yes) bet.

I calculated expected goals as the average of the team's attacking xG and the opponent's defensive xG: FAS attacking xG 1.52 vs xG conceded by Cacahuatique 1.59 → expected 1.56 for the home side; Cacahuatique attacking xG 1.30 vs xG conceded by FAS 1.48 → 1.39 for the away side, total 2.95. A total of 2.95 in the Poisson model corresponds to roughly a 79% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 57% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5), while only around 34% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Seasonal rates support this picture: hosts have 77% of matches Over 1.5, visitors 73%, and for the 2.5 line it's 55% and 59% respectively. Additionally, FAS scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per match) versus the visitors' 4 goals (0.8 per match), and the both teams to score percentages are 59% and 55% — this further boosts the probability of at least two goals. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (side: Over, line: 1.5).

Statistical analysis indicates the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an away win (X/2). Averaging both teams’ perspectives yields estimated HT probabilities: home leading ~16% (leadingAtHT_home 18% vs trailingAtHT_away 14%), draw ~46% (drawingAtHT_home 55% and drawingAtHT_away 36%), and away leading ~38% (leadingAtHT_away 50% vs trailingAtHT_home 27%). For FT, the away side appears favored — they have a seasonal win rate of 45% and average 1.55 points per match, whereas the home side wins at home only 14% and averages 0.77 points per match. In the first half the away team scores on average 0.82 goals versus the home team’s 0.55 and concedes only 0.23 goals by HT, while converting chances more efficiently (shot conversion 17% vs 11%), which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. Combining the averaged HT distribution (16/46/38) with the estimated FT distribution (approximately 25% home win, 27% draw, 48% away win) yields the highest share for X/2 (~22%), therefore X/2 is the recommended HT/FT pick.