FAS vs Firpo: match statistics

FAS are unbeaten at home, winning 67% of their matches and averaging 1.67 goals scored against just 0.67 conceded per game. The hosts also create higher-quality chances: their average xG stands at 1.81, compared with Firpo’s 1.59, while they register 13.67 shots per match versus 11 for their opponents. Firpo are in excellent overall form, with 4 wins and a draw in their last five matches and no goals conceded during that run, but they have drawn both of their away fixtures so far. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per game away from home and have failed to score in 50% of such matches, significantly limiting their chances against FAS’s solid defence. Home advantage and the hosts’ greater attacking consistency point to a narrow FAS victory, although Firpo’s strong resistance to defeat increases the likelihood of a draw.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as FAS keep a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches and have yet to concede a goal there. Firpo average just 0.50 goals scored away from home, have failed to score in 50% of such appearances, and their shot conversion rate is only 5%, compared with FAS’s 18%. The hosts are clearly more dangerous in front of goal, averaging 8.33 shots on target and 2.33 goals per match, so the most likely scenario is one in which they provide the goals. Firpo’s last five matches have produced an average of 1.60 goals scored and an xG of 1.63, but the team have not conceded a single goal during that period, further supporting a one-sided outcome. The seasonal BTTS rate in the league is only 44%, and the combination of FAS’s strong defence and Firpo’s low away goal production suggests that at least one team will fail to score.

FAS averages 2.33 goals at home, but Firpo concedes only 0.50 goals per away match and has kept a clean sheet in each of its last five games. The hosts boast a solid xG of 1.86, but Firpo’s defensive profile is confirmed by an xG conceded of 1.16 and clean sheets in 50% of matches. Only 33% of FAS matches and none of Firpo’s matches went over 2.5 goals, while both teams have recorded 100% of matches under 3.5. The expected total of 2.17 goals points to a scoreline in the 1–3 goal range, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

FAS have won all of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 2.33 goals and conceding none, while Firpo have drawn every away fixture, scoring just 0.50 goals on average. The hosts led at the break in all 3 of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals before half-time, whereas Firpo have failed to score in the first half in any of their away games and went into the interval level on both occasions. FAS also hold the edge in chance creation, recording 8.33 shots on target per match compared with Firpo’s 5.50, as well as an 18% finishing rate versus 5%. Although Firpo’s recent form is strong, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, FAS have the more favourable home profile and should take the lead before half-time. After the break, FAS have continued to keep a clean sheet in every home match and score an average of 1.00 goal, making the most likely outcome an HT/FT 1/1: the hosts to lead at the break and win after the final whistle.