Gagra vs Saburtalo: match statistics

Saburtalo sit 2nd in the table, while Gagra are eighth, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 10 matches compared with the hosts’ 5 victories. Away from home, Saburtalo score an average of 1.8 goals per match, compared with Gagra’s 1.0 at home, and they are also more clinical in front of goal, converting 16% of their chances versus 9%. The visitors enjoy more possession (53% to 48%) and register slightly more shots on target per match: 4.7 compared with 4.45. Neither side is in convincing form, with Saburtalo taking 5 points from their last five matches and Gagra 6; however, the hosts have drawn as many as 45% of their home fixtures. Saburtalo’s superior attacking quality should prove decisive, although their average of 1.4 goals conceded away from home increases the risk of a closely contested match.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Gagra have recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches, while Saburtalo have done so in 50%, compared with a league average of 56%. In their last five matches, both teams had BTTS in 60% of games, with Saburtalo particularly accommodating to opponents, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match. Gagra create an average of 1.48 xG, while Saburtalo’s defence allows opponents 1.45 xG, giving the hosts a realistic basis for scoring. The visitors are offensively effective, scoring 1.8 goals per match this season from 1.47 xG, while Gagra have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches. The risk to the pick comes from Gagra’s 40% clean-sheet rate, but the current vulnerability of both defences slightly favours the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The match profile points to approximately 2.78 goals: Gagra averages 1.48 xG, while Saburtalo averages 1.47 xG, with both teams allowing opponents 1.21 and 1.45 xG respectively. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with at least three goals in 60% of cases, but their average scorelines were 1.4:1.4 and 1.2:2.0 respectively, which supports a total of two or three goals rather than an open, high-scoring game. The 3.5 line is further supported by seasonal data: 90% of Gagra’s matches and 70% of Saburtalo’s matches finished with fewer than four goals. Gagra have not scored more than two goals in a single match, while Saburtalo have exceeded that threshold in only 30% of their appearances. Therefore, Under 3.5 has a clear edge, despite a realistic chance of at least three goals.

Gagra has a very solid first-half profile: they led at the break in 50% of their matches, while conceding just 0.1 goals on average during that period. Before half-time, Saburtalo allow opponents to score an average of 1.0 goals and, in their last five matches, went into the interval trailing in as many as 60% of cases, without taking the lead even once. At home, the hosts score 1.2 goals per match and concede just 0.8, while their average of 1.9 points per game is better than Saburtalo’s 1.5. The visitors are more dangerous after the interval, scoring an average of 0.9 goals compared with Gagra’s 0.5, so some of the hosts’ advantage may fade; nevertheless, the HT/FT scenario of Gagra leading at half-time and maintaining their winning position remains the strongest.