Gorica vs Rijeka: match statistics

Gorica have lost all 4 of their league matches so far, scoring just 2 goals and conceding 9, while a run of five consecutive matches without a point has clearly weakened their prospects. Rijeka have a stronger season record, with 2 wins from 3 matches, and have collected 7 points in their last five outings compared with Gorica’s 0. At home, the hosts create chances worth just 1.10 xG and average 0.5 goals, while their defence allows opponents 2.26 xG and concedes 2 goals per match. Rijeka are yet to score away from home despite averaging 1.52 xG and 15 shots per game, so the risk of a draw remains significant. However, the visitors’ advantage in possession—62% versus 43%—and their considerably higher volume of attempts should enable them to end their scoring drought and secure a narrow win.

The strongest signal is Rijeka’s poor attacking efficiency in this matchup: the visitors have yet to score, and their rate of matches without scoring stands at 100%. Across their last 5 games, Rijeka have averaged just 1.0 goal, while Gorica, despite a very poor five-match losing streak, have managed only 0.4 goals per game. Both teams had BTTS - Yes in just 40% of their last five appearances, well below the league average of 57%. However, Rijeka create chances worth an average of 1.77 xG, while Gorica have conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last five matches, making an away goal a realistic possibility. Nevertheless, the combination of Rijeka’s goalless record in the season data and Gorica’s low attacking output indicates that the more likely scenario is BTTS - No: at least one team will fail to score.

Gorica have lost their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals in total, an average of 0.4 per game, despite recording an average xG of 1.21. Over the same period, Rijeka scored an average of 1.0 goal but created chances worth 1.77 xG, while Gorica’s defense allowed opponents 1.99 xG. Although the hosts conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last five appearances, only 40% of their matches and just 20% of Rijeka’s games went Over 2.5 goals. Rijeka failed to score in 100% of the available away matches from the current sample, which limits the risk of a very high-scoring game despite Gorica’s poor defensive form. The projected total of 2.60 goals points to an edge toward Under 3.5, as a four-or-more-goal scenario would require a clearly higher level of finishing from both teams than shown in their recent form.

Recent form clearly favors Rijeka: Gorica have lost all of their last five matches, scoring an average of just 0.4 goals and conceding 2.2, while Rijeka have won 40% of their games and recorded 1.4 points per match. The first-half pattern is particularly significant: Gorica have failed to score before half-time in their last five appearances, while conceding an average of 1.4 goals; over the same period, Rijeka scored 0.6 goals before the break and conceded 0.6. The hosts were behind at half-time in 80% of those matches, whereas Rijeka led at the break in 40%, strengthening the case for the visitors to hold the advantage in the first half. Although Gorica’s earlier home data is highly favorable, it covers only two matches, while their current five-match losing streak and the difference in the quality of recent results provide stronger support for Rijeka to win both at half-time and at full-time.