Greenock Morton vs Raith Rovers: match statistics

Second-placed Raith Rovers are favourites against bottom-of-the-table Greenock Morton: the visitors have won 4 of their 8 league matches this season, while the hosts are still without a win. Morton have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding 10 goals in the process, whereas Raith have let in just 3 over the same period. At home, Morton average 0.5 goals scored and 2 conceded, while Raith average 1 goal scored and just 0.5 conceded away from home. Chance quality also points against Morton: their home xG is 0.71, with 1.7 xG conceded to opponents, although Raith’s away xG of 0.8 suggests the visitors may not need to create many chances. A draw cannot be ruled out, but Morton’s four defeats in four home games and Raith’s two wins in four away fixtures clearly favour the visitors.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in just 25% of their matches, indicating that more often than not at least one team fails to score. Raith Rovers have failed to score in 50% of their games, and their away xG is just 0.80, compared with the 0.68 xG allowed by Greenock Morton’s defence at home. Meanwhile, the hosts have averaged only 0.6 goals across their last 5 matches, while the visitors have conceded 0.6 goals per game over that period and have not recorded BTTS on any occasion. One counterpoint is that Morton have recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals, but with both sides showing limited attacking output, it remains more likely that at least one team will finish the match without scoring.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 75% of Greenock Morton’s matches and 100% of Raith Rovers’ matches. Both teams also finished 75% of their games with no more than 2 goals, while across the league only 23% of matches went Over 2.5 goals. The hosts average 14 shots and post an xG of 1.82, but the visitors concede just 0.5 goals per game, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. One counterpoint is the hosts’ recent defensive weakness: they conceded an average of 2 goals across five matches, though the visitors scored an average of 1.2 goals over that period. Therefore, a forecast of around 2.0 goals in total particularly supports Under 3.5, with room to spare even for a 2-1 scoreline.

The strongest signal points to Raith Rovers taking the lead at the break: in their last five matches, the visitors were ahead at half-time twice and never trailed, while Greenock Morton were behind at the break three times and never led. Over that period, Morton averaged 0.2 goals scored before half-time and conceded 1.0, while Raith did not concede a single first-half goal. The visitors’ advantage also carries over to full-time results: they have taken 7 points from their last five matches, compared with just 1 point for the hosts, who lost four of those games. Caution is warranted, however, as Morton’s season-long home xG of 1.82, compared with Raith’s away xG of 0.80, gives the hosts a genuine chance of a turnaround. Despite this counterargument, the teams’ current form makes the visitors leading at half-time and holding on until full-time my single most likely HT/FT scenario.