Grêmio vs Fluminense: match statistics
Grêmio vs Fluminense: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grêmio played Fluminense in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 26 July 2026. Venue: Arena do Grêmio. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Grêmio: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Fluminense: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grêmio scores 1.11 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. Fluminense scores 1.53 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grêmio 58%, Fluminense 74%. Over 2.5: Grêmio 42%, Fluminense 53%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Fluminense has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.23. Grêmio: 11.2 shots per match, Fluminense: 15.2.
Match halves
Grêmio: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.68. Fluminense: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Grêmio: 46-60 (7 goals). Fluminense: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back 1 — a Grêmio win. Home form: 56% wins, +4 goal difference at home, 1.67 goals scored on average and xG 1.58 with 14.56 shots and 5.0 on target per match. Fluminense away: only 22% wins, −2 goal difference on the road, 1.22 goals scored with xG 1.46 and lower shot conversion 9% despite 59% possession. Last 5 matches: Grêmio 9 goals and 1.4 points per game, Fluminense 7 goals and 1.6 points per game — comparable form but better chance conversion by the hosts (11% vs 9%). Defensively, Grêmio concedes 1.22 goals at home (xG against 1.52), while Fluminense concedes 1.44 away (xG against 1.61), giving a slight defensive edge to the hosts. Considering the higher home win rate, superior conversion and higher share of shots on target, I assess probabilities as: Home win 60%, Draw 25%, Away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes: the data strongly supports both teams scoring. Grêmio has a seasonal BTTS of 80% and Fluminense 67%, and in the last 5 matches both sides have BTTS at 80%, providing a strong, repeatable signal. Grêmio averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.1 (attacking xG 1.95 vs conceded xG 1.16), while Fluminense scores 1.22 and concedes 1.44 (attacking xG 1.46 vs conceded xG 1.61), meaning both teams create and permit chances. In the last 5 matches Fluminense’s average attacking xG is 1.71, and Grêmio concedes xG 1.69 over the same period; additionally the hosts average 6.5 shots on target versus the visitors’ 4.67, confirming realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Based on this I assign BTTS 78% vs 22% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model yields expected goals: Grêmio ~1.78 (xG_for 1.95 vs opponent xG_against 1.61), Fluminense ~1.31 (xG_for 1.46 vs home xG_against 1.16), combined ~3.09 goals. Season data confirm a goal-prone tendency — Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Grêmio’s matches and 89% of Fluminense’s matches, while BTTS rates are 80% vs 67%, increasing the likelihood of goal exchanges. Grêmio averages 17.3 shots and 6.5 on target per match versus Fluminense’s 12.9/4.67, supporting higher home goal production (~1.78). Using a Poisson distribution for a total of 3.09 goals gives ~81% probability for over 1.5, ~60% for over 2.5 and ~37% for over 3.5, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1: Grêmio led at the break in 50% of their home matches and wins 70% of games, which places the home side as favorite at both Half-Time and Full-Time. At the break Grêmio averages 0.8 goals scored and concedes only 0.3 (clean sheet at half-time in 70% of matches), while Fluminense averages 0.67 scored and 0.56 conceded by half-time. The home advantage is also evident in xG (1.95 vs 1.46), total shots (17.3 vs 12.89) and shots on target (6.5 vs 4.67), translating into greater offensive pressure and a higher probability of maintaining a lead. Additionally, Grêmio dominate the second half at home (90% of matches with >0.5 goals in the second half and 6 goals in the 76–90' interval), while Fluminense have only a 22% away win rate and 44% away losses, making scenarios featuring an away lead the least likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grêmio | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Fluminense is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Grêmio · 1.2 pts / match - Fluminense
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Grêmio · 1.53 goals / match - Fluminense
Fluminense is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - Grêmio · 1.26 goals / match - Fluminense
Grêmio scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
Fluminense scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grêmio
Over / Under - Fluminense
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Grêmio · 1.68 pts / match - Fluminense
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grêmio
Fluminense
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Grêmio | Liga | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.42 | 2.64 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 58% | ▲ 74% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 26% | 23% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 78% | • 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 77% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Grêmio 0 - 0 - 3 Fluminense. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grêmio vs Fluminense?
The Serie A match finished Grêmio 1:1 Fluminense. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grêmio and Fluminense?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 0, Fluminense won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grêmio vs Fluminense?
Grêmio score 1.11 goals per game on average and Fluminense 1.53. The Serie A average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Grêmio's matches and 74% of Fluminense's.
What form are Grêmio and Fluminense in?
Over the last 5 games Grêmio have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Fluminense 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grêmio vs Fluminense?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Grêmio vs Fluminense: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.