Guaraní vs Libertad: match statistics

I back Guaraní to win: the hosts win 50% of home matches and have a positive goal differential at the stadium (+5), while Libertad wins only 33% of away games. Guaraní’s defense looks more solid — the hosts concede on average 0.92 goals per game versus Libertad’s 1.25 on the road. In attack both teams average 1.33 goals, however Libertad produces higher away xG (1.52 vs 1.32) and more shots (14.75 vs 12), indicating an edge in chance creation. Nevertheless Libertad has a higher share of goalless away matches (42% vs 33%), and in the last 5 fixtures both sides have scored only 3 goals and recorded just 1 win each, pointing to limited form. Considering the hosts’ stronger defense and Guaraní’s higher shot efficiency (11% conversion vs 9% for Libertad), the hosts are the favorites.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 45% for Guaraní and 33% for Libertad, both below the league average of 53%, indicating a lower-than-average probability of BTTS - Yes. Libertad failed to score in 42% of matches this season, while Guaraní kept a clean sheet in 45% of fixtures; combined these figures point to a realistic likelihood that at least one team will not score. Despite similar seasonal attacking xG (1.49 for Guaraní vs 1.52 for Libertad), over the last 5 matches both teams are averaging only 0.6 goals, with Libertad conceding 1.4 on average versus 1.0 for Guaraní, demonstrating a drop in finishing and defensive susceptibility of opponents. Shot-on-target stats 5.55 vs 4.58 and conversion rates 13% vs 9% give the hosts an edge toward a single goal, but do not offset Libertad’s high percentage of goalless games. Considering these numbers, I assess the probability of No BTTS at 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.

xG analysis shows Guaraní has an attacking xG of 1.49 versus opponents’ xG allowed of 1.24, implying an expected 1.37 goals for the home side; Libertad has an attacking xG of 1.52 versus opponents’ xG allowed of 1.20, implying about 1.36 goals for the away side, totaling approximately 2.73 goals. A Poisson model with mean 2.73 estimates Over 1.5 at ~76%, Over 2.5 at ~52% and Over 3.5 at ~30%. Season stats support a tendency toward at least 2 goals: Guaraní has 55% of matches over 1.5, Libertad 67%, while the league records 42% of matches over 2.5. Additionally both teams average 13.18 and 14.75 shots and 5.55 and 4.58 shots on target, with the home side having a 13% conversion rate versus 9% for the away; on the other hand, in the last 5 matches both sides have averaged only 0.6 goals, which limits confidence on higher overs. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is an Over 1.5 play (line 1.5, side 'over') with an estimated probability of 76% and an expected total of 2.73 goals.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Guaraní victory at full-time (X/1) — the home side drew at the break in 55% of matches and Libertad in 50%, so HT is most often a draw. After the break Guaraní averages 1.0 goal in the second half versus 0.83 for Libertad, and the hosts have a 55% win rate at home compared to a 33% away win rate for the visitors, which favors a Guaraní full-time win. Guaraní averages 5.55 shots on target vs 4.58 for Libertad and has a higher conversion rate (13% vs 9%) with a similar xG (1.49 vs 1.52); additionally the hosts scored 4 goals in minutes 31–45 versus 2 for the visitors in that interval, indicating greater threat from the hosts just before and after the break. Although the hosts lead at the break in 36% of matches (the visitors only 17%), the high proportion of HT draws (55%/50%) makes X/1 a stronger signal than 1/1; scenarios with a visitor comeback are unlikely given Libertad’s weaker away form (points per away match 1.08 vs 1.91 for Guaraní).