Harju Jalgpallikool vs Kuressaare: match statistics

Harju Jalgpallikool have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals in that period, while Kuressaare have managed just 1 victory and conceded as many as 11 goals. The hosts average 1.64 goals per match at home, compared with just 0.93 for the visitors away from home, failing to score in 50% of such games. Kuressaare’s away defence allows opponents an average of 1.93 goals and 2.14 xG, with the team yet to keep a single clean sheet. Harju have a clearly superior home record, with a 43% win rate compared with the opponents’ 21% away win rate, while Kuressaare have lost 71% of their away matches. The hosts’ advantage in current form, attacking efficiency and the opponent’s defensive vulnerabilities points to a Harju victory.

BTTS - Yes is supported by current form, as both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their last 5 matches. Harju averaged 1.6 goals during this period, while Kuressaare conceded as many as 2.2 goals per match, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring. Although the visitors averaged only 0.93 goals per game this season, their xG stands at 1.51, almost identical to Harju’s 1.52, while the hosts allow opponents a high xG of 1.87. Kuressaare have not kept a single clean sheet this season, while Harju have done so in just 14% of matches, meaning both defences regularly allow opponents to score. The season BTTS figures—57% for Harju and 50% for Kuressaare—are moderate, but the profile of their recent matches and the visitors’ defensive weakness tilt the prediction towards a Goal/Goal outcome.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least two goals: the 1.5-goal threshold was surpassed in 71% of each team’s games. Kuressaare have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season and concede an average of 1.93 goals, strengthening the outlook for a home goal. Harju have an average xG of 1.52, while Kuressaare stand at 1.51, with both defences allowing 1.87 and 2.14 xG respectively. In their last five matches, the visitors conceded as many as 11 goals, or 2.2 per game, while 80% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals. However, the strongest and safest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, supported by a forecast of 3.00 total goals.

Harju have a clear advantage over the course of the season: they score an average of 1.29 goals per match and win 36% of their games, while Kuressaare lose as many as 71% of their matches and concede an average of 1.93 goals. The signal for Harju to lead at the break is strengthened by the fact that the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes in 36% of their matches, while the visitors went into half-time trailing in 57% of games. In the first half, the hosts score an average of 0.71 goals, compared with Kuressaare conceding 0.86, making a scenario in which Harju establish an advantage from the outset the most likely. Recent form over the last five matches also strongly favours the hosts: they won four games, scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.2, whereas Kuressaare lost three times and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. After the break, Harju have recently scored 1.2 goals per match compared with Kuressaare’s mere 0.4, increasing the likelihood of them maintaining or extending their lead through to full-time.