Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics

Nõmme Kalju sit 2nd, while Harju Jalgpallikool are seventh, and the difference in current form is well illustrated by the visitors’ run: 5 wins in their last 5 matches with a 24:3 goal difference. During the same period, the hosts won just 2 of 5 games and conceded 7 goals, despite scoring 14. Away from home, Kalju win 64% of their matches and concede just 0.55 goals on average, keeping a clean sheet in 64% of their appearances, whereas Harju allow opponents 1.58 goals and record 2.03 against xG at home. The visitors also create slightly more high-quality chances, averaging 1.74 xG compared with Harju’s 1.58, and register 14.55 shots per match against 12.25 for the hosts. Harju are dangerous in attack at home, averaging 1.83 goals, but Kalju’s very strong defence and excellent run of form point towards an away win.

Harju have recorded BTTS in 75% of their league matches, while the figure stands at 60% across their last five games, confirming a consistent combination of scoring goals and defensive concessions. The hosts average 2.25 goals and create 1.93 xG per match, while Nõmme Kalju allow opponents 1.28 xG, meaning that even a very solid away defence may not keep a clean sheet. Kalju are in excellent attacking form: they have scored 24 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 4.8, with 1.97 xG, while Harju conceded 1.4 goals over this period and allowed opponents 1.52 xG. Kalju’s season-long low BTTS rate of 27% and 64% clean sheets support the BTTS - No option, but the current efficiency of both attacks gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

Nõmme Kalju are in excellent form, scoring 24 goals in their last five matches, or 4.8 per game, while Harju averaged 2.8 goals over the same period. At the same time, the visitors’ defense remains highly solid: they concede just 0.55 goals per match this season and keep a clean sheet in 64% of games, limiting the home side’s projection to 1.16 goals. The teams’ average xG figures—1.93 for Harju and 1.74 for Kalju—indicate offensive potential but do not suggest that four goals will be exceeded regularly. Historically, 67% of Harju matches and 82% of Kalju matches have finished with under 3.5 goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest angle based on both teams’ long-term profile. The high tempo of their last five matches increases the chances of at least 3 goals, but Kalju’s defensive advantage makes a result with a maximum of three goals more likely.

Nõmme Kalju are in clearly better current form: they have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 4.8 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Harju have lost three of their last five. The visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.2 goals in the first half, whereas the hosts managed just 1.0 first-half goal over the same period. Across the season, Kalju were ahead after 45 minutes in 64% of matches and conceded only 0.18 goals per game before the break, keeping a clean sheet in this phase in 82% of fixtures. The visitors’ defence remains the key argument after half-time as well, conceding an average of just 0.55 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 64% of games. Harju are an offensive threat at home, but their expected goals against figure stands at 1.46 compared with 1.28 for Kalju; therefore, the most likely scenario is a 1/1 HT/FT outcome, with the visitors leading at the break and securing the full-time victory.