Harju Jalgpallikool vs Tammeka: match statistics

Tammeka come into this match on a run of 5 consecutive wins, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 1 during that period, while Harju have won 3 of their last 5 matches but have allowed opponents to score 7 goals. The visitors create more chances away from home, averaging 16.55 shots and 5.55 shots on target per match, compared with 11.85 and 4.38 for the hosts. Their average away xG is 1.85, clearly higher than Harju’s 1.53 at home, while Harju’s defence allows opponents an xG as high as 2.03. The hosts are more clinical on home soil, averaging 1.77 goals compared with Tammeka’s 1.18 away from home, but they also concede 1.46 goals per match. Tammeka’s very strong current trend and advantage in chance creation point to a slightly higher probability of an away win.

The seasonal BTTS rates for both teams are moderate, standing at 50% for Harju and 45% for Tammeka, and therefore remaining below the league average of 59%. The strongest argument for a BTTS - No scenario is Tammeka’s current defensive form: they have conceded only 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while BTTS landed in just 20% of those appearances. Harju have indeed been in a more open spell, with BTTS in 80% of their last five matches and an average of 1.8 goals scored, but their xG of 1.67 is set against Tammeka’s low recent xG conceded figure of 1.25. The visitors should create chances, as they average 1.85 xG and 5.55 shots on target per match; however, their five-match winning streak and defensive solidity increase the likelihood of Harju failing to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least two goals were scored in 64% of Tammeka’s matches and 50% of Harju’s, while both teams found the net in over 73% of their games. In their last 5 matches, Harju averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, resulting in 80% of games featuring at least three goals. Tammeka creates plenty of chances, averaging 16.55 shots and 5.55 shots on target per match, while its average xG stands at 1.85 compared with Harju’s 1.65 xG conceded. The hosts average 1.33 xG in attack, while the visitors’ defence allows 1.55 xG on average, so both sides should create scoring opportunities. The 2.5 line is more balanced, whereas Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge based on a projection of 2.75 goals in the match.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Tammeka win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 58% of their matches, compared with 45% for the visitors. Tammeka have not lost any of their last five matches, winning all five and conceding just 0.2 goals per game during this period. Harju average only 0.42 goals before the break, while Tammeka, despite their higher average of 0.64 goals, were level at half-time in 60% of their last five matches. After the break, Tammeka won 55% of their second-half segments and kept a clean sheet after half-time in 100% of their last five matches. The hosts hold an advantage in overall attacking efficiency, averaging 1.33 goals compared with Tammeka’s 1.82 goals conceded, but the visitors’ defensive form and winning streak point to the match being decided after the break in Tammeka’s favour.