Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical: match statistics
Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Inverness CT played Hamilton Academical in League One (Scotland). The match was played on 2 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Inverness CT: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Hamilton Academical: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Inverness CT scores 1.66 and concedes 0.66 goals per match. Hamilton Academical scores 1.49 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.62 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Inverness CT 46%, Hamilton Academical 40%. Over 2.5: Inverness CT 37%, Hamilton Academical 57%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Inverness CT has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.29. Inverness CT: 13.3 shots per match, Hamilton Academical: 9.8.
Match halves
Inverness CT: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.91. Hamilton Academical: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Inverness CT: 61-75 (13 goals). Hamilton Academical: 46-60 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.62 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Inverness CT has 20 wins, 11 draws and only 4 losses this season, and at home they win 71% of matches, topping the home table. The hosts have scored 58 goals this season and average 2.12 goals per home game while conceding 0.65 on average, whereas Hamilton have 52 goals this season, score 1.59 on the road and concede 1.47. Inverness generates average xG of 1.96 with 6.88 shots on target and 16.18 total shots per match, while Hamilton have xG 1.33, 4.88 shots on target and 10.35 total shots, so although the visitors have higher shot conversion (15% vs 13%) they create far fewer goal-scoring opportunities. Additionally, the hosts have not recorded a single home match without scoring (0% such games) and keep 47% clean sheets, while Hamilton fail to score in 35% of away matches and have 35% clean sheets; therefore I assess the probability of a home win at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The xG-based model gives a moderate signal for BTTS - Yes: attacking xG is 1.25 for Inverness and 1.33 for Hamilton, while xG against is 1.13 for the home side and 1.45 for the visitors; from these values expected goals come out around 1.35 (Inverness) and 1.23 (Hamilton), which via a Poisson model yields ~52% chance of BTTS. Additionally, in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred 60% of the time for the home team and 40% for the away team (average 50%), and both sides generate a high volume of shots: 9.22/10.35 overall and 4.39/4.88 on target with a conversion rate of 15%, supporting goals from both teams. The counterargument is Inverness’s high clean sheet rate of 44% and season-long BTTS only 39% (Inverness) and 41% (Hamilton), which historically reduces the frequency of both teams scoring. Weighing xG, recent form and shot metrics against seasonal clean sheets, I favor the "Yes" scenario at 56% versus 44% for "No".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Average xG is 1.25 for Inverness and 1.33 for Hamilton, with xG against 1.13 (Inverness) and 1.45 (Hamilton). Averaging the home attack vs away defense and the away attack vs home defense yields expected goals of 1.35 for Inverness and 1.23 for Hamilton, total 2.58. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 are 67% for Inverness and 82% for Hamilton (average 74.5%), so the 1.5 line provides the strongest signal — I estimate Over 1.5 at ~75%. A Poisson model with λ=2.58 gives P(>=3)=47.6%, hence I rate Over 2.5 as a moderate edge at ~52%, taking into account that Hamilton has 71% of matches over 2.5. Over 3.5 remains unlikely: seasonal values 22%/47% (average 34.5%) and Poisson ~26% suggest an estimated ~30% for Over 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at the break in 8 of their matches to date (44%) and won 56% of all games, suggesting the strongest signal is a lead at the break and a win for Inverness CT. In the first half the home side average 0.67 goals scored and 0.28 conceded, while the visitors record 0.76 scored and 0.59 conceded — so the hosts’ defense is more stable before the break. In the second half the visitors produce more goals (on average 1.71 vs 1.28 for the hosts) and also concede more (0.88 vs 0.56), but the hosts earn 31 points after the break and have 50% wins in second halves versus 35% for the visitors, which increases the chances of maintaining the lead. Additionally, 72% of the hosts’ first halves are clean sheets (vs 65% for the visitors), therefore my most likely HT/FT pick is 1/1 (36%), followed by X/1 (20%) and X/X (15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Inverness CT | Hamilton Academical | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inverness CT is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.66 goals / match - Inverness CT · 1.49 goals / match - Hamilton Academical
Inverness CT is 77% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.66 goals / match - Inverness CT · 1.17 goals / match - Hamilton Academical
Inverness CT scores in 91% of matches (32 of 35 matches), while Hamilton Academical keeps a clean sheet in 40% (14 of 35 matches).
Hamilton Academical scores in 71% of matches (25 of 35 matches), while Inverness CT keeps a clean sheet in 51% (18 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Inverness CT
Over / Under - Hamilton Academical
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inverness CT is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.77 pts / match - Inverness CT · 1.6 pts / match - Hamilton Academical
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Inverness CT - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hamilton Academical - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (13 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Inverness CT
Hamilton Academical
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Inverness CT | Liga | Hamilton Academical | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.31 | 2.62 | • 2.66 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 50% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 37% | 49% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 51% | 27% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 74% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 83% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Inverness CT 2 - 0 - 1 Hamilton Academical. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
The League One match finished Inverness CT 2:1 Hamilton Academical. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Inverness CT and Hamilton Academical?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Inverness CT won 2, Hamilton Academical won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
Inverness CT score 1.66 goals per game on average and Hamilton Academical 1.49. The League One average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Inverness CT's matches and 40% of Hamilton Academical's.
What form are Inverness CT and Hamilton Academical in?
Over the last 5 games Inverness CT have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Hamilton Academical 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
The statistical background for Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.