Istra 1961 vs Varaždin: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams, which points to a draw. Istra 1961 is in catastrophic form with four defeats in their last five matches, yet at home they maintain balance with 33% wins, draws, and losses. Varaždin also lacks shine in their away form (46% losses on the road), and their recent fixtures are a series of unstable results. Both teams have an identical goal difference (-3 for the hosts in home matches, -4 for the guests in away games) as well as similar xG values, confirming their balanced quality. The average of 2.25 goals per match for the hosts and 2.46 for the visitors suggests a high-scoring encounter; however, the poor finishing of both sides (9-10% shot conversion) and their defensive issues indicate the points are likely to be shared.
Istra 1961 vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Istra 1961 played Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 20 March 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Istra 1961: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Varaždin: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Istra 1961 scores 1.19 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. Varaždin scores 1.27 and concedes 1.38. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Istra 1961 58%, Varaždin 62%. Over 2.5: Istra 1961 54%, Varaždin 50%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.27. Istra 1961: 10.0 shots per match, Varaždin: 12.0.
Match halves
Istra 1961: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.58. Varaždin: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Istra 1961: 0-15 (7 goals). Varaždin: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates very even chances for both teams, which points to a draw. Istra 1961 is in catastrophic form with four defeats in their last five matches, yet at home they maintain balance with 33% wins, draws, and losses. Varaždin also lacks shine in their away form (46% losses on the road), and their recent fixtures are a series of unstable results. Both teams have an identical goal difference (-3 for the hosts in home matches, -4 for the guests in away games) as well as similar xG values, confirming their balanced quality. The average of 2.25 goals per match for the hosts and 2.46 for the visitors suggests a high-scoring encounter; however, the poor finishing of both sides (9-10% shot conversion) and their defensive issues indicate the points are likely to be shared.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Istra 1961 | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varaždin is 67% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Istra 1961 · 1 pts / match - Varaždin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Istra 1961 · 1.27 goals / match - Varaždin
Istra 1961 scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).
Varaždin scores in 77% of matches (20 of 26 matches), while Istra 1961 keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Istra 1961
Over / Under - Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Varaždin is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - Istra 1961 · 1.27 pts / match - Varaždin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Istra 1961 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Istra 1961
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Istra 1961 | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.58 | 2.68 | • 2.65 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 57% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 25% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 78% | • 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Istra 1961 2 - 0 - 0 Varaždin. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Istra 1961 vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Istra 1961 2:1 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Istra 1961 and Varaždin?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Istra 1961 won 2, Varaždin won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Istra 1961 vs Varaždin?
Istra 1961 score 1.19 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.27. The Prva HNL average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Istra 1961's matches and 62% of Varaždin's.
What form are Istra 1961 and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Istra 1961 have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Varaždin 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Istra 1961 vs Varaždin?
The statistical background for Istra 1961 vs Varaždin — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.