KäPa vs MP: match statistics
KäPa vs MP: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
KäPa played MP in Ykkösliiga (Finland). The match was played on 9 October 2026. Venue: Mustapekka Areena. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
KäPa: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. MP: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
KäPa scores 1.20 and concedes 1.80 goals per match. MP scores 1.08 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: KäPa 68%, MP 48%. Over 2.5: KäPa 72%, MP 40%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. KäPa: 11.0 shots per match, MP: 11.5.
Match halves
KäPa: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.68. MP: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
KäPa: 61-75 (7 goals). MP: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ykkösliiga: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
KäPa have a slight home advantage, averaging 1.25 goals per match at home, while MP score 1.00 away goals per game and have lost 62% of their away matches. The hosts also create slightly better chances, recording a home xG of 1.42 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.34. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, but KäPa scored 9 goals over that run, compared with 5 for MP. The hosts’ main weakness is their defence: they concede an average of 1.83 goals at home, while MP allow 1.38 goals per away match. I’m therefore backing a KäPa win, although there is little to separate the two sides.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has occurred in 50% of KäPa’s matches and 46% of MP’s fixtures, so the full-season data do not give either outcome a clear edge. However, the case for both teams to score is supported by the hosts averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded, while the visitors average 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded per match. Their attacking potential is also reflected in xG figures of 1.41 for KäPa and 1.34 for MP, with opponents allowing xG of 1.58 and 1.50 respectively. In their last five matches, KäPa recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals, boosting MP’s chances of finding the net. Caution is still warranted, however, as MP failed to score in 31% of matches, so the edge for BTTS - Yes remains slight.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 75% of KäPy matches and 77% of MP matches. The home side averages 1.17 goals scored, while the visitors average 1.00, although xG figures of 1.41 and 1.34, respectively, suggest both teams can create chances. KäPy’s last five matches produced an average of 3.8 goals, compared with just 2.0 for MP, so the home side’s recent uptick should be treated with caution. The forecast of 2.55 goals is close to the league average of 2.57 and supports Under 3.5, where both teams’ season results align much more clearly than at the 2.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is a realistic scenario: MP were level at the break in 54% of their matches this season, while KäPa were level in 40% of their last five. At the same time, recent form offers little reason to expect the hosts to take an early lead — they had not been ahead at half-time in any of their last five matches, whereas MP had led in three. After the break, the advantage could shift to KäPa, who scored an average of 1.4 goals in the second half across their last five matches and won the second half in 60% of cases. The hosts’ full-season record also supports a home win: they won 42% of their matches compared with MP’s 23%, while the visitors lost 62% of their games. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a KäPa win is the most likely single outcome, although MP’s strong second-half defence in their last five matches, conceding an average of just 0.2 goals, limits confidence in this pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| KäPa | MP | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
KäPa is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.2 goals / match - KäPa · 1.08 goals / match - MP
MP is 29% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.8 goals / match - KäPa · 1.4 goals / match - MP
KäPa scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while MP keeps a clean sheet in 24% (6 of 25 matches).
MP scores in 72% of matches (18 of 25 matches), while KäPa keeps a clean sheet in 12% (3 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - KäPa
Over / Under - MP
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MP is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - KäPa · 1.48 pts / match - MP
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
KäPa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
MP - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 32%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -6 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
KäPa
MP
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ykkösliiga).
Teams vs league
| KäPa | Liga | MP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.00 | 2.57 | • 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 68% | 46% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 72% | 46% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 31% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 66% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 76% | 74% | ▼ 56% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): KäPa 1 - 0 - 1 MP. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of KäPa vs MP?
The Ykkösliiga match finished KäPa 1:1 MP. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between KäPa and MP?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches KäPa won 1, MP won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before KäPa vs MP?
KäPa score 1.20 goals per game on average and MP 1.08. The Ykkösliiga average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 68% of KäPa's matches and 48% of MP's.
What form are KäPa and MP in?
Over the last 5 games KäPa have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and MP 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for KäPa vs MP?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.