Kilmarnock vs Dundee: match statistics
Kilmarnock vs Dundee: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kilmarnock played Dundee in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Kilmarnock: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Dundee: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kilmarnock scores 1.09 and concedes 1.97 goals per match. Dundee scores 1.00 and concedes 1.59. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kilmarnock 56%, Dundee 47%. Over 2.5: Kilmarnock 63%, Dundee 53%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Kilmarnock has higher xG: 1.27 vs 1.12. Kilmarnock: 11.1 shots per match, Dundee: 10.0.
Match halves
Kilmarnock: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.47. Dundee: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.47.
Goals by minute
Kilmarnock: 31-45+ (10 goals). Dundee: 31-45+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kilmarnock holds a clear advantage in chance creation and efficiency at home: they average 13.31 shots per game, including 4.06 on target, and score 1.25 goals per match, whereas Dundee away record 9.31 shots, 2.63 on target and only 0.50 goals per game. The gap is confirmed by xG — Kilmarnock posts 1.47 xG at home versus 1.01 xG for Dundee on the road; additionally Dundee concedes 1.80 xG away while Kilmarnock concedes 1.43 at home, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for Dundee. Over the last five matches the hosts are 2-1-2 (1.4 points per game) and the visitors 1-2-2 (1.0 ppg), which supports Kilmarnock’s superior form. Efficiency metrics further emphasize the edge: Kilmarnock win 31% of home games and fail to score in only 31% of home matches, while Dundee win 13% of away games and are shut out in 69% of away fixtures. On this basis I tip a home win, with a moderate chance of a draw and a low probability of an away victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is that Kilmarnock has a season-long BTTS rate of 69%, while the league average registers 51% of matches with both teams scoring. Additionally, the hosts have conceded 63 goals this season and kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, with an xG against of 1.77, indicating frequent allowance of scoring chances to opponents. Dundee have weaker seasonal offensive metrics (0.5 goals per match and a season BTTS of 25%), but in their last 5 fixtures the visitors scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and show an 80% BTTS rate in those five games, increasing the risk they will score here as well. Both sides have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per match on average), and match xG figures are 1.24 for Kilmarnock and 1.01 for Dundee, indicating sufficient chances at both ends of the pitch. Considering the dominant home signal (69% BTTS, low clean sheet percentage) and Dundee’s recent run (80% BTTS in 5 games), I tip BTTS 'yes' with a 65% probability versus 35% for 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I calculated expected goals by averaging one team’s attack and the other’s defense: for Kilmarnock (xG attack 1.24 and xG conceded by Dundee 1.80) this yields 1.52 goals, for Dundee (xG attack 1.01 and xG conceded by Kilmarnock 1.77) yields 1.39, total 2.91. With a combined expectation of 2.91 the Poisson model gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈79%, Over 2.5 ≈56% and Over 3.5 ≈33%. Season numbers confirm a strong Over 1.5 signal: Kilmarnock have 88% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, Dundee 50%, and the league goals average is 2.69 per game. Additionally Kilmarnock create more chances (10.69 shots and 3.44 on target per game with a 14% conversion), while Dundee have a lower conversion of 5% and a season away average of 0.5 goals, which reduces the likelihood of very high-scoring outcomes (Over 3.5 ~33%). Therefore I recommend playing the Over at the 1.5 line — this is the strongest signal: 79% probability with expected 2.91 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Kilmarnock have a clear edge in attack: they score on average 1.5 goals per game versus 0.5 for Dundee, and 0.69 before half-time versus 0.38, which favors the home side taking a lead at the break. The quality of chances also favors Kilmarnock — xG 1.24 versus 1.01, 3.44 shots on target per game vs 2.63 and a conversion rate of 14% compared to 5% for the visitors — this increases the likelihood they will create and convert a chance before half-time. In the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of games while Dundee did so in only 20%, and Kilmarnock add on average 0.81 second-half goals versus 0.13 for Dundee, so maintaining or extending the lead is realistic. Additionally, Kilmarnock win 38% of home matches compared with just 13% away wins for Dundee, and season-long data show Kilmarnock games finish with both teams scoring in 69% of cases (vs 25% for Dundee), which suggests the opponent can score but rarely stages a turnaround. Therefore the best HT/FT signal is 1/1 (Kilmarnock leading at half-time and winning at full-time), to which I assign the highest probability in the distribution below.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kilmarnock | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kilmarnock is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1 pts / match - Dundee
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kilmarnock is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.09 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 1 goals / match - Dundee
Dundee is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.97 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 1.59 goals / match - Dundee
Kilmarnock scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Dundee keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
Dundee scores in 56% of matches (18 of 32 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
Over / Under - Dundee
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kilmarnock is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 1.16 pts / match - Dundee
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Dundee - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 25%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kilmarnock
Dundee
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Kilmarnock | Liga | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.06 | 2.69 | ▼ 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 51% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 51% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 29% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 74% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 79% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kilmarnock 0 - 1 - 1 Dundee. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The Premiership match finished Kilmarnock 2:2 Dundee. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and Dundee?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kilmarnock won 0, Dundee won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
Kilmarnock score 1.09 goals per game on average and Dundee 1.00. The Premiership average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Kilmarnock's matches and 47% of Dundee's.
What form are Kilmarnock and Dundee in?
Over the last 5 games Kilmarnock have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Dundee 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The statistical background for Kilmarnock vs Dundee — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.