Kilmarnock vs Hearts: match statistics
Kilmarnock vs Hearts: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kilmarnock played Hearts in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 19 September 2026. Venue: Rugby Park. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Kilmarnock: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Hearts: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kilmarnock scores 0.83 and concedes 2.33 goals per match. Hearts scores 2.17 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kilmarnock 33%, Hearts 83%. Over 2.5: Kilmarnock 50%, Hearts 100%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Hearts has higher xG: 1.72 vs 1.30. Kilmarnock: 10.8 shots per match, Hearts: 15.3.
Match halves
Kilmarnock: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.50. Hearts: half-time lead 67%, second-half goals 0.83.
Goals by minute
Kilmarnock: 46-60 (3 goals). Hearts: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hearts are clear favourites, having remained unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 13 points and winning 4 games, while Kilmarnock have managed just 5 points. The visitors have scored 12 goals during this period, compared with only 4 for the hosts, which clearly reflects the difference in their current attacking efficiency. At home, Kilmarnock have lost every match so far, averaging just 0.33 goals and failing to score in 67% of such fixtures. The hosts’ defence allows opponents an xG of 2.23 and concedes an average of 3.33 goals per home game, while Hearts average 2 goals and an xG of 1.55 away from home. The visitors also register more shots per match, 14 compared with 11.67, with a significantly better conversion rate of 14% versus 3%; therefore, a Hearts victory is the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The signal for both sides to score is clear in the seasonal data: BTTS occurred in 67% of Kilmarnock’s matches and as many as 100% of Hearts’ games, compared with a league average of 52%. Kilmarnock average 2.67 goals at home with an xG of 2.03, while Hearts have kept no clean sheets away from home and allow opponents an xG of 1.47. Hearts are also in very good offensive form, scoring an average of 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while Kilmarnock conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period. The risk to the pick is the hosts’ weaker recent efficiency: they scored only 0.8 goals per match in their last 5 games and recorded BTTS in 40% of them. However, their creative potential, reflected by an xG of 1.67, combined with Hearts’ weak defence, still supports a Kilmarnock goal. The most likely scenario therefore remains one in which both teams score at least once.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal profile clearly supports at least two goals: both Kilmarnock’s home matches and Hearts’ away games finished with over 1.5 goals in 100% of cases. The hosts create an average of 2.03 xG at home and register 7.0 shots on target per match, while Hearts generate 1.55 xG away from home. Hearts’ defence allows an average of 1.47 xG, and Kilmarnock conceded 1.6 goals per game across their last five matches, giving the visitors a realistic path to scoring. Hearts have scored 12 goals in their last five matches and are on a four-match winning streak, although Kilmarnock’s recent scoring rate of 0.8 goals per game reduces confidence in higher lines. Therefore, Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as the projected total of 2.90 goals and the very strong indicators for both teams clearly point towards at least two goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal points to Hearts leading at the break and holding on for the win: in their last five matches, the visitors won 80% of their games, compared with just 20% for Kilmarnock. Hearts led at half-time in 60% of those fixtures, scoring an average of 1.2 goals, while Kilmarnock scored just 0.2 goals in the first halves and conceded 1.0. The visitors’ post-break form is also clearly superior, as they average 1.2 goals and won the second half in 60% of their last matches, whereas the hosts managed only 0.6 goals. Kilmarnock’s home advantage, where the team averages 2.03 xG compared with Hearts’ 1.55, limits confidence in the selection, but the current difference in form and first-half efficiency clearly strengthens the 2/2 scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kilmarnock | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 2.4 pts / match - Hearts
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 161% better for: goals scored per match.
0.83 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 2.17 goals / match - Hearts
Hearts is 99% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.33 goals / match - Kilmarnock · 1.17 goals / match - Hearts
Kilmarnock scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Hearts scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
Over / Under - Hearts
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hearts is 161% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.83 pts / match - Kilmarnock · 2.17 pts / match - Hearts
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 67% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kilmarnock
Hearts
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Kilmarnock | Liga | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.17 | 2.60 | ▲ 3.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 53% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▲ 100% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 26% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 83% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Kilmarnock 1 - 1 - 1 Hearts. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
The Premiership match finished Kilmarnock 1:1 Hearts. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kilmarnock and Hearts?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Kilmarnock won 1, Hearts won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
Kilmarnock score 0.83 goals per game on average and Hearts 2.17. The Premiership average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Kilmarnock's matches and 83% of Hearts's.
What form are Kilmarnock and Hearts in?
Over the last 5 games Kilmarnock have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Hearts 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kilmarnock vs Hearts?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Kilmarnock vs Hearts: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.