Larissa vs Asteras Tripolis: match statistics

Both teams sit in the lower part of the table (Larissa 12th, Asteras 13th) and show very low win rates: Larissa has won only 4 matches this season, Asteras 6. In their last 5 fixtures Larissa has failed to win (0W, 2D, 3L) and averages 0.4 points per game, while Asteras has 2W, 2D, 1L in the last 5 and averages 1.6 points. At home Larissa generates more chances — 12.06 shots per game and 3.81 on target, xG 1.31 and 0.88 goals on average, whereas Asteras away records 8.81 shots, 2.81 on target, xG 1.00 and 0.44 goals on average. At the same time Asteras have been more resilient recently (conceded 5 goals in the last 5 matches versus Larissa’s 8) and have a higher clean sheet rate away (31% vs 19%), but the visitors fail to score in 56% of away games, while Larissa failed to score in only 25% of home matches. Given the similar xG (1.31 vs 1.00), the high home draw rate (44% draws at home) and Larissa’s poor form, the most likely outcome is a draw with a low total of goals.

Larissa has a seasonal BTTS rate of 63% and in the last 5 matches BTTS stands at 80%, with an average of 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded, indicating the home side’s propensity to participate in goal exchanges. Asteras has a seasonal BTTS of 38% and averages only 0.44 goals per away match, however in the last 5 away fixtures their BTTS rose to 60% with an average of 1.4 goals scored, so the visitors’ recent form increases the likelihood of them scoring. The hosts average 10.25 shots and 3.75 on target per match with a conversion rate of 15%, while Asteras away shows xG against of 1.6 and concedes 1.5 goals seasonally, suggesting the visitors are vulnerable to conceding. Additionally Larissa have only 13% clean sheets this season versus Asteras’ 31%, meaning the hosts concede in 87% of matches, which further elevates BTTS probability. Overall, stronger offensive and defensive signals (63% vs 38% season BTTS and 80% vs 60% in last 5) tilt the selection toward BTTS - Yes.

Calculated expected goals (attack average vs opponent defence) are 1.41 for Larissa and 1.18 for Asteras, totaling 2.59 goals. Larissa averages 1.56 goals per match, attempts 10.25 shots (3.75 on target) with a 15% conversion, while Asteras averages 0.44 goals per match, 8.81 shots (2.81 on target) and a 5% conversion — this favors the home side’s greater efficiency. Seasonal metrics show Over 1.5 in 81% of Larissa’s matches and 63% of Asteras’s (avg ~72%), and Over 2.5 in 63% vs 38% (avg ~50%); xG 2.59 and the last 5 matches, where Larissa scored 5 goals and Asteras 7, further boost the probability of at least two goals. On this basis I pick Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (82% chance); Over 2.5 is rated at 57%, and Over 3.5 at 25%.

Larissa scores an average of 1.56 goals per match versus Asteras’s 0.44, and at home they average 1.25 points per match compared to the visitors’ 0.5, indicating a clear home advantage. At half-time Larissa averages 0.75 goals and concedes 0.88 (26 HT goals), while Asteras averages 0.25 scored and 0.63 conceded (14 HT goals); the hosts led at the break in 6 matches (38%) versus 2 (13%) for the visitors, so Larissa has a higher probability of holding a lead at half-time. In the second half Larissa scores an average of 0.81 goals versus Asteras’s 0.19 and collected 27 points after the break (an average of 1.69 points post-break), while the visitors have 8 points (an average of 0.5 points post-break), which suggests the hosts will maintain or extend their advantage. Additionally Larissa has an xG of 1.21 versus Asteras’s 1.00, a shot conversion of 15% versus 5% and more shots on target (3.75 vs 2.81), confirming greater effectiveness for the hosts and a higher likelihood of closing the match with a win. Based on this I assess the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of Larissa leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1) as the most likely (approx. 48%), therefore I select the "1/1" tip.