LDU Portoviejo vs Santo Domingo: match statistics

LDU Portoviejo have a clearly stronger home profile: they win 55% of their matches, lose just 9%, and concede only 0.36 goals per game on average. The hosts also create better chances, posting an average xG of 1.40 compared with Santo Domingo’s 1.24 away from home, while allowing a lower xG at their own end: 0.89 versus 1.14. Santo Domingo are unbeaten in their last five matches and have scored 9 goals during that run, but they average only 0.75 goals away from home and fail to score in 58% of their away fixtures. LDU Portoviejo are also unbeaten in their last five matches, keeping a clean sheet in all of them, and have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their home games. The hosts’ defensive edge and the visitors’ poor away scoring record point towards a narrow LDU Portoviejo victory, although Santo Domingo’s high 42% away draw rate increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams have recorded a very low percentage of matches with goals scored by both sides this season: LDU Portoviejo 27% and Santo Domingo 25%, compared with 36% for the league. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches and concede just 0.36 goals on average, significantly limiting Santo Domingo’s chances of scoring. The visitors fail to score in 58% of their matches, while their average of 0.75 goals per game remains low despite 4.36 shots on target per match. LDU’s last five appearances produced 0% BTTS and not a single goal conceded, while the hosts themselves scored only 0.8 goals per game. Santo Domingo have been more effective recently, averaging 1.8 goals, but LDU’s exceptionally solid defensive profile makes the scenario in which at least one team fails to score clearly the most likely outcome.

The league profile is clearly low-scoring: it averages just 1.89 goals per match, while the 2.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 32% of games. LDU Portoviejo concede just 0.36 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 64% of their appearances, while they have not conceded a single goal in their last five matches. Across the entire season, the hosts’ matches have never produced at least 4 goals, whereas this outcome has occurred in only 8% of Santo Domingo’s games. The visitors have been more clinical recently, averaging 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, but their attacking advantage should be limited by LDU’s very solid defence. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest data-backed option, as a scenario featuring four or more goals clearly deviates from the seasonal trends of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as LDU were level at the break in 45% of their matches, compared with 50% for Santo Domingo. The opening phase is expected to be very cautious: the hosts score an average of 0.45 goals before half-time and concede just 0.18, while the visitors score 0.25 goals. LDU kept a clean sheet in 82% of first halves and have not conceded a single goal before the break in their last five matches, significantly reducing the visitors’ chances of taking the lead at the break. The hosts have been stronger over the course of the season, averaging 2.00 points per match compared with their opponents’ 0.92, but their 36% draw rate, along with Santo Domingo’s 42%, supports a share of the points. Both teams also have low-scoring profiles, with LDU’s average total goals standing at 1.45, making a 0-0 or 1-1 result the most likely outcome.