Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne / BJSS: match statistics

Leevon / PPK holds a clear offensive advantage and superior chance quality: at home they average 2.00 goals per match with an average xG of 1.46, while Rēzekne / BJSS registers only 0.17 goals on the road and xG 0.66. The visitors are extremely inefficient and defensively vulnerable — their shot conversion is 4%, in 83% of away matches they failed to score and they concede on average 2.83 goals away (xG against 2.68). The home side attempt significantly more shots and have more shots on target at home (10.43 shots and 4.29 on target vs 4.33 and 1.67 for the visitors), and a 19% conversion rate shows created chances are more frequently turned into goals. A warning sign is Leevon’s defensive trend — they conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), whereas seasonally they concede 1.29 goals at home, indicating some instability at the back. Considering the advantage in average goals (2.00 vs 0.17), superior xG (1.46 vs 0.66) and number of shots on target, I project a home win; probabilities estimated at approximately 80% home, 12% draw and 8% upset by the visitors.

Leevon has BTTS in 88% of matches this season and 100% in the last 5, while Rēzekne has seasonal BTTS of only 17% but 60% in the last 5 matches. Both teams show defensive issues: Leevon concedes on average 2.75 goals per match (2.4 in the last 5), Rēzekne concedes 2.83 goals per match (2.2 in the last 5), and the league averages 3.49 goals per match with 61% BTTS. In attack Leevon scores 1.25 goals/match (xG 0.88, 23 goals this season) with a 26% conversion rate, Rēzekne has 0.17 goals/match (xG 0.66, 11 goals this season) and a 4% conversion, although in the last 5 matches Rēzekne scored 4 goals (0.8 per match). Considering Leevon’s 100% BTTS in form, the high average goals conceded by both teams and Rēzekne’s improvement in the last 5, I assess the Both Teams To Score - Yes scenario as more likely (75% vs 25%).

A model combining season xG and form from the last 5 matches yields 1.61 xG for Leevon and 1.33 xG for Rēzekne, totalling 2.94 expected goals. Season-long attack‑defense calculations show (0.88+2.68)/2=1.78 for the home side and (0.66+1.75)/2=1.21 for the away side, while the last 5 matches give ~1.50 and ~1.41 respectively, so a 60/40 weighting produces the forecasted values. Match statistics support Over 2.5: Leevon have 75% of games >2.5 this season and 100% in the last 5, Rēzekne 67% seasonally and 60% in the most recent five, and the league averages 68% of matches >2.5. Additionally, Leevon are more clinical (1.25 goals per game seasonally, 3.5 SOT, 26% conversion vs Rēzekne 0.17 goals, 1.67 SOT, 4% conversion), which increases the likelihood of more goals. As a result the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (recommendation: Over at the 2.5 line), while Over 1.5 is virtually certain (96%) and Over 3.5 remains less stable (44%).

The visitors have very poor offensive efficiency: seasonal goals average only 0.17 and 0 points per match, and they score 0.0 goals on average by half-time and have never held a lead at the break (0% leads), so it is unlikely they will be leading after 45 minutes. The hosts possess a clear advantage in chance quality and finishing — on average 3.5 shots on target versus 1.67 and a conversion rate of 26% versus 4% for the visitors, while the hosts’ average goals by half-time is 0.43, which increases the probability of a host goal before the break. Full-match data also favor the home side: hosts score 1.25 goals on average with xG 0.88 versus 0.17 goals and xG 0.66 for the visitors, and they collect 0.63 points per match compared to 0.0 for the opponents, so they are more capable of sustaining a win. The visitors only show a tendency for sporadic late goals (1.0 goal in minutes 76–90), which poses a small risk of an equalizer, therefore the most reliable scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (HT/FT = 1/1).