Liepāja vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics

Liepāja have a clear home advantage: they have won 62% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per game, while BFC Daugavpils have won just 14% of their away fixtures. The hosts are also in better current form, scoring 8 goals and collecting 8 points from their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have failed to win during this period, scoring only 4 goals and earning 3 points. Daugavpils’ away defence concedes an average of 1.57 goals, with an xG against of 1.65, highlighting genuine problems in limiting opponents’ chances. Liepāja average 5.08 shots on target at home compared with Daugavpils’ 4.29 away, while the hosts’ conversion rate stands at 17% versus 10% for the visitors. A draw remains possible, as BFC Daugavpils have drawn 43% of their away matches, but Liepāja’s superior quality and current form point towards a home win.

The seasonal profile is uneven: BFC Daugavpils record BTTS in 71% of matches, while Liepāja do so in only 38%; however, both teams produced this outcome in 60% of their last five matches. Liepāja have recently averaged 1.6 goals per match, while Daugavpils concede 1.2, which supports the prospect of a home goal. The visitors have scored just 0.8 goals across their last five appearances, but Liepāja’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.60, while Daugavpils create an average xG of 1.49. In addition, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their matches this season, compared with just 14% for the visitors, so a complete shutout by either side is not the most likely scenario. The BTTS signal is moderate, but the current frequency of both teams scoring and the xG figures slightly outweigh the arguments for BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 81% of Liepāja’s matches and 64% of BFC Daugavpils’ games. Liepāja score an average of 1.13 goals per match, while Daugavpils average just 1.21, with the visitors scoring only 0.8 goals per game across their last five appearances. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches, whereas Daugavpils have exceeded 1.5 goals scored only once in five games. However, their attacking potential is sufficient to produce goals, with both teams recording average xG figures of 1.62 and 1.49, and the forecast standing at 2.48 total goals. At the same time, reaching the four-goal mark would require significantly above-average finishing, which is inconsistent with the season-long results and the visitors’ poor scoring form.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Liepāja win after 90 minutes, as the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 57% for Daugavpils. Both teams tend to play very cautiously in the first half: Liepāja score an average of 0.50 goals and concede just 0.13, while the visitors score only 0.21. After the break, the quality advantage should shift towards the hosts, who have won 50% of their league matches this season, compared with just 14% for Daugavpils, while over the last five rounds they averaged 1.6 goals against 0.8 for their opponents. Daugavpils concede an average of 1.57 goals per match, including 1.14 after half-time, whereas Liepāja averaged 1.0 goal in the second halves of their last five games. Liepāja’s higher xG of 1.62 compared with the visitors’ 1.49, as well as their average of 4.81 shots on target per match against 4.29, further support a final home win.