Maribor vs Mura: match statistics

Maribor sit top of the table and remain unbeaten after 7 matches, recording 4 wins and 3 draws, while Mura are 9th and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The hosts have won every match at home, averaging 2.67 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded, whereas Mura concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home. Maribor have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home appearances, while the visitors have failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road. Mura are capable of creating chances, as reflected by their away xG of 1.88 and 6.25 shots on target per match, but they convert just 10% of their attempts and have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last five games. Maribor also boast a run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is primarily strengthened by Mura’s weak defence: away from home, they concede an average of 2.50 goals, have kept no clean sheets, and allowed opponents 2.4 goals per match across their last 5 games. Maribor are currently far more effective than their home average suggests, scoring 2.0 goals per game in each of their last five appearances and recording BTTS in 80% of matches. Mura are coming off a weaker run of results, but their attacking potential remains clear: they average 1.88 xG, produce 6.25 shots on target per match, and score an average of 1.50 goals away from home. The hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals at home, with an xG against of 1.37, so they are not defensively solid enough to reliably stop an attack of this quality. Mura’s seasonal 75% BTTS rate, together with the latest figures for both teams, points towards a scenario in which each side scores.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Mura have recorded at least 2 total goals in 100% of their away matches, with their games producing an average of 4.00 goals. The visitors’ defence concedes 2.50 goals per away match, while Maribor have averaged 2.00 goals and generated an xG of 1.63 across their last 5 appearances. Mura remain dangerous offensively, producing 1.88 xG and 6.25 shots on target per away match, which should reduce the risk of a one-sided, tight match. Maribor’s last 5 matches produced an average of 3.00 goals, while Mura’s corresponding figure stands at 3.40, clearly above the league average of 2.58. The 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, whereas the 1.5 threshold is strongly supported by both the hosts’ form and the visitors’ very poor defence.

Maribor are clearly stronger in terms of current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, remaining unbeaten, while Mura suffered four defeats and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. The hosts were leading at the break in three of their last five appearances, whereas Mura were trailing at half-time in 60% of that sample. Maribor’s advantage is particularly evident after the interval, when they average 1.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded, while Mura allow opponents to score an average of 1.6 goals. The visitors do create more chances over the course of the season, recording an xG of 1.88 and 6.25 shots on target per match, but their recent results have been poor, yielding just 0.6 points per game. Therefore, the most likely scenario remains Maribor taking the lead before half-time and maintaining it until the final whistle — HT/FT 1/1.