MP vs PK-35: match statistics

PK-35 sit 2nd, having won 12 of 20 matches and lost only 3, while MP have a record of 6 wins and 11 defeats. The visitors are particularly strong away from home: they win 78% of their matches, score an average of 1.67 goals and concede just 0.11 per game, keeping a clean sheet in 89% of their appearances. At home, MP score an average of 1.33 goals but allow opponents an xG of 1.56 and concede 1.44 goals, creating favourable conditions for PK-35 to exploit their 14% conversion rate. Recent form also favours the visitors, who have averaged 1.6 points and conceded 6 goals across their last five matches, whereas MP have earned 0.8 points per game and allowed opponents to score 11 times. PK-35’s defensive superiority and exceptionally high away efficiency point to the visitors as the most likely winners.

The seasonal signal clearly supports the BTTS - No option: PK-35 kept a clean sheet in 89% of matches and had not a single BTTS game, while the league average for BTTS stands at 44%. MP scores 1.73 goals per home game and has an xG of 1.52, but the opponent conceded only 0.11 goals per match on average, significantly limiting the hosts’ chances. PK-35 has an attacking potential of 1.67 goals and an xG of 1.44, but MP keeps a clean sheet in only 18% of matches, making the most realistic scenario an away goal with the hosts failing to score. The last five appearances increase the BTTS risk, as both teams recorded a 60% rate during that period and MP conceded 2.2 goals on average; however, this sample is weaker than PK-35’s very strong full-season defensive profile. The “No” pick has a slight edge because it also covers outcomes where only one team scores, not exclusively a goalless draw.

PK-35 has a very solid defensive profile in the competition, conceding just 0.11 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 89% of its fixtures. MP does average 1.73 goals at home, but its last five matches produced only 8 goals scored, alongside a lack of stability after conceding 11 goals. The combined xG figures point to a more moderate scenario, with MP averaging 1.52 xG and PK-35 1.44 xG, supporting a projection of around 2.40 goals. On a season-long basis, PK-35 finished below 3.5 goals in as many as 89% of matches, while the figure for MP stands at 64%. This makes Under 3.5 the stronger edge, as even if both teams score, reaching the high threshold of four goals would require a significantly more open game than the visitors' defensive profile suggests.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a PK-35 win, as both teams were level at the break in 44% and 55% of their matches, respectively, while PK-35 conceded an average of just 0.11 goals before half-time. The visitors have been significantly more effective over the season as a whole: they have won 78% of their matches and average 2.44 points per game, compared with MP’s 45% win rate and 1.73 points per match. PK-35’s defence has conceded an average of only 0.11 goals per game and kept a clean sheet in 89% of its appearances, which significantly reduces the hosts’ chances of maintaining a favourable result. After the break, the visitors score an average of 1.11 goals and concede none, whereas MP have scored only 0.2 goals after half-time across their last five matches. Current form also supports the away side: PK-35 have lost only 20% of their last five matches, while MP have lost as many as 60%.