Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: match statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Negele Arsi Ketema played Ethiopia Nigd Bank in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 26 June 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Negele Arsi Ketema: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.97 and concedes 0.75 goals per match. Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores 1.19 and concedes 1.14. League average: 1.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema 39%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 58%. Over 2.5: Negele Arsi Ketema 28%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 47%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Negele Arsi Ketema has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.09. Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.1 shots per match, Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 6.2.
Match halves
Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.53. Ethiopia Nigd Bank: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (10 goals). Ethiopia Nigd Bank: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.77 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Negele Arsi Ketema has a clear defensive advantage at home: they concede 0.67 goals per game on average and keep 44% clean sheets, while Ethiopia Nigd Bank concedes 1.28 goals on the road and has only 22% clean sheets. In attack the hosts average 1.00 goal per home match with 6.56 shots and 2.72 on target, whereas the visitors record 0.89 goals away with 5.72 shots and 2.22 on target; xG is 1.09 vs 1.04 in favor of the hosts. The visitors are, however, slightly better in recent form — average points in the last five matches are 1.6 for the visitors (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) vs 1.2 for the hosts (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss) — and have scored more goals this season (43 vs 35). Key differences are the home goal difference of +6 for the hosts versus -7 for the visitors away, and home win rate 39% versus visitors’ away win rate 11%. Due to superior defense and favorable home record I favor a home win, but the high draw rates (44% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors away) make a shared point outcome realistic.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes: 60% probability (No BTTS 40%). Seasonal indicators favor BTTS: Negele Arsi Ketema has BTTS 50% and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 67%; in the last 5 matches these are 40% and 60% respectively. Home side averages 1.5 goals per game with xG 1.14, 3.06 shots on target and a 20% conversion rate, putting pressure on the away defense which concedes 1.28 goals per season; the away team averages 0.89 goals per game with xG 1.04 but have scored 43 goals this season, demonstrating scoring capability. Counterarguments: low league average goals 1.77 and a high share of clean sheets in the competition (81%). Nevertheless, the clear seasonal and form signals from both teams (50%/67% seasonally and 40%/60% in the last 5) support the BTTS scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on the home attack xG of 1.14 and the away defense xG of 1.26 I estimated expected home goals as (1.14+1.26)/2 = 1.20; for the visitors (1.04+1.06)/2 = 1.05, total 2.25 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.25 yields P(≥2 goals) ≈65.7% (I round to 66% for Over 1.5), P(≥3 goals) ≈39.1% (39% for Over 2.5) and P(≥4 goals) ≈19.1% (19% for Over 3.5). Seasonal indicators confirm a moderate scoring profile: home teams have 78% of matches with over 1.5 goals, away teams 72%, but only 22% (home) and 17% (away) of matches finished with 4+ goals. Home sides average 3.06 shots on target with a 20% conversion, while visitors average 2.22 shots on target with a 16% conversion, which aligns with the projected 1.20 and 1.05 xG and limits the likelihood of four goals. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5 (estimated 81%), while Over 1.5 (66%) remains a plausible but weaker option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 — the home team leads at the break and ultimately wins. The home side led at half-time in 8 matches this season (44%) versus only 1 such case for the visitors (6%), and the average goals by half-time are 0.61 for the hosts compared to 0.28 for the guests. Over the full match the home team averages 1.50 goals at home and 1.72 points per game, while the away team records 0.89 goals on the road and 0.83 points on average — this demonstrates a clear home advantage. After the break the hosts score on average 0.89 goals (vs 0.61 for the visitors) and xG favors them 1.14 versus 1.04, therefore I consider 1/1 the strongest signal (40% probability).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.6 pts / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.19 goals / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Negele Arsi Ketema is 52% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.75 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.14 goals / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 64% of matches (23 of 36 matches), while Ethiopia Nigd Bank keeps a clean sheet in 28% (10 of 36 matches).
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores in 69% of matches (25 of 36 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 44% (16 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Negele Arsi Ketema
Over / Under - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema · 1.17 pts / match - Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Negele Arsi Ketema | Liga | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.72 | 1.77 | ▲ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | • 39% | 40% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 28% | 28% | ▲ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 44% | 40% | ▼ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 64% | 59% | ▲ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Negele Arsi KetemaGoalBereket Wolde Waza
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Negele Arsi Ketema 1 - 0 - 0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Negele Arsi Ketema 2:0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
Negele Arsi Ketema score 0.97 goals per game on average and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1.19. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Negele Arsi Ketema's matches and 58% of Ethiopia Nigd Bank's.
What form are Negele Arsi Ketema and Ethiopia Nigd Bank in?
Over the last 5 games Negele Arsi Ketema have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Negele Arsi Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.