Negele Arsi Ketema vs Shire Endaselassie: match statistics

Negele Arsi Ketema sit 3rd in the table with 13 wins and 32 goals this season, while Shire Endaselassie are 17th with 8 wins and 20 goals. At home Negele averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes 0.69 per match, keeping clean sheets in 44% of home games and averaging 6.44 shots with 2.75 on target and a conversion rate of 16%. The visitors on the road score only 0.56 per match, concede 1.06, have 63% of matches without scoring and average 5.06 shots with 2.06 on target and an 11% conversion. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 6 goals and averaged 1.6 points per game (2W, 2D, 1L), while the visitors scored only 3 goals and averaged 1.4 points per game (2W, 1D, 2L); both teams conceded 6 goals in that period. The quality gap is also visible in xG: hosts have home xG for 1.09 versus 0.93 xG for the visitors away, and xG against averages 1.25 for the hosts and 1.22 for the guests. Combined with a higher shot volume and better conversion, this favors the hosts. Considering league position, superior finishing (16% vs 11%), lower average goals conceded at home (0.69 vs 1.06) and a higher clean sheet rate (44% vs 31%), I predict a home win; probabilities assigned: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Seasonal BTTS indicators for both teams are low: hosts have 25% of matches with both teams scoring, visitors 31%, versus a league average of 41%. Hosts kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches and visitors in 31%; the share of matches in which a team failed to score is 44% for hosts and as high as 63% for visitors, strongly indicating frequent one-sided scoreless outcomes. Both teams create few chances — average goals scored 0.69 (hosts) and 0.56 (visitors), attacking xG 0.92 and 0.93, with only 5.06 shots per match and 2.06 on target, i.e. below 1.0 xG and low productivity. In the last 5 matches BTTS was 40% for hosts and only 20% for visitors, and average goals in that run were 1.2 vs 0.6, further supporting the scenario that both teams rarely score simultaneously. In light of these figures the stronger signal favors 'No' (75%) versus 'Yes' (25%).

Data show xG 0.92 for Negele Arsi Ketema and 0.93 for Shire Endaselassie, i.e. ~1.85 xG total; in the last 5 matches the home side averaged 1.2 goals and the visitors 0.6 (1.8 total). Seasonal goal averages are only 0.69 (home) and 0.56 (away), and the proportion of matches over 2.5 goals is just 19% for each team, indicating a low frequency of ≥3-goal games. A Poisson model with lambda=1.85 gives ~55% probability for Over 1.5, ~28% for Over 2.5 and ~12% for Over 3.5, but the seasonal 19% Over 2.5 rate and low percentages of matches where both teams scored (25% home, 31% away) strengthen an “under” signal. The home team has 50% clean sheets, which further suggests a low-scoring outcome; therefore I recommend Under 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability Under 2.5 ≈72%).

Half-time statistics indicate that a draw is the most frequent scenario: the home team were level at the break in 7 matches (44%) and the away team in 11 matches (69%), yielding an average of about 56% probability of a draw at half-time. Despite this, the home side are stronger overall — they win 38% of home fixtures and average 1.44 points per match, whereas the visitors have only 13% wins and 0.81 points per match; additionally, the home team keep a clean sheet in 50% of games. In second halves, the away side concede on average 0.63 goals after the break, while hosts score before half-time on average 0.44 goals versus 0.31 for their opponents, with similar xG (0.92 vs 0.93), suggesting that half-time draws often resolve in favor of the home team. The low percentage of BTTS for the home side (25%) and their high share of half-time clean sheets (81%) point to few goals before the break and resolution in the second half. As a result, my strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time draw/home (X/1) — I assign this scenario 23% probability, with 1/1 rated at 22% as a close alternative.