Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: match statistics
Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme Kalju played Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 28 June 2026. Venue: Hiiu staadion. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Paide: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme Kalju scores 1.71 and concedes 0.82 goals per match. Paide scores 1.53 and concedes 1.24. League average: 3.02 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme Kalju 47%, Paide 65%. Over 2.5: Nõmme Kalju 41%, Paide 53%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.75 vs 1.58. Nõmme Kalju: 14.3 shots per match, Paide: 13.2.
Match halves
Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 47%, second-half goals 1.00. Paide: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.76.
Goals by minute
Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (8 goals). Paide: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.02 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-3. Average goals 2.17, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nõmme Kalju holds a slight edge in key season metrics: 29 goals scored versus Paide's 26 and a higher league position (2nd vs 4th). Defensively the hosts perform better — 14 goals conceded this season versus 21 for the visitors, averaging 1.0 goals conceded in home matches compared to Paide’s 1.44 on the road, and xG against of 1.43 vs 1.64, indicating fewer high-quality chances for opponents. Offensive differences are marginal: hosts' average xG 1.86 vs visitors' 1.74, an average of 2.00 goals in home matches vs 1.89 for Paide away, and 5.89 shots on target per match vs 5.22, so Kalju generates slightly more opportunities. In the short term Paide shows better form — in the last 5 matches they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with 6 goals scored and an average of 1.6 points per match, versus Nõmme Kalju with 1 win and an average of 1.0 point per match. Considering the stronger defense, higher xG and greater average shots for the hosts, I forecast a moderate advantage for Nõmme Kalju (52% win, 22% draw, 26% Paide win).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from seasonal indicators: Nõmme Kalju has BTTS 50%, Paide 78%, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 80%. Offensively Paide scores 1.89 goals per game versus 1.13 for the home side, while conceding 1.44 (Paide) and 1.00 (Nõmme Kalju) goals per game, which favors reciprocal scoring. xG confirms chance creation: xG for is 1.41 (home) vs 1.74 (away), and xG against is 1.55 vs 1.64, meaning both teams generate and concede opportunities. Paide averages 5.22 shots on target vs 3.0 for Nõmme Kalju and has higher conversion 13% vs 10%, while Paide’s away clean sheet occurs in only 11% of matches (home 38%), further increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering 80% BTTS in the last 5, seasonal 50%/78% and league BTTS level 55%, I estimate 80% for Yes and 20% for No, so the best pick is BTTS = Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.53 for Nõmme Kalju and 1.64 for Paide (total 3.17). This estimate was derived as the average of offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: home xG_for 1.41 and away xG_against 1.64 yield ~1.53; away xG_for 1.74 and home xG_against 1.55 yield ~1.64. The total 3.17 exceeds the league average of 3.02, and season indicators show a propensity for goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 50% of home matches and 78% of away matches, Over 2.5 in 38%/67%. Additionally, BTTS is 50% for the home side and 78% for the visitors, and both teams have 100% of seasonal matches with at least 0.5 goals, which increases the probability of at least two goals. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (high confidence), Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~66%), while Over 3.5 appears less likely (~39%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast Nõmme Kalju to lead at the break and the home side to win at full-time (1/1) as the primary scenario. The hosts led at half-time in 4 matches (50%) and average 0.63 goals by the break while conceding only 0.38, with 88% of their games ending with a clean sheet at half-time, indicating a solid start. However, the visitors have a higher xG (1.74 vs 1.41), more shots on target (5.22 vs 3.00) and are more active in the second half — averaging 2.0 goals after the break and recording at least one goal after half-time in all their matches (100%), which raises the risk of a turnaround. Overall the hosts win 50% of matches versus 44% for the visitors, but the away side have 78% of games with both teams scoring and better recent form over the last 5 matches (40% wins vs 20% for the hosts), so I also assign significant probabilities to turnaround scenarios (X/2 14% and 2/2 15%). Considering the home advantage at half-time (50% leads) and their higher win percentage, 1/1 receives the highest weight (26%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme Kalju | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paide is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.6 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.71 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.53 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme Kalju is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.82 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.24 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme Kalju scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Paide scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 41% (7 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
Over / Under - Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.76 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.59 pts / match - Paide
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 47% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme Kalju
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme Kalju | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.53 | 3.02 | ▼ 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 55% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 63% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 24% | • 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 73% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | • 88% | 89% | • 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Nõmme Kalju 0 - 3 - 3 Paide. Average goals 2.17, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme Kalju 1:1 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nõmme Kalju and Paide?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Nõmme Kalju won 0, Paide won 3 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
Nõmme Kalju score 1.71 goals per game on average and Paide 1.53. The Meistriliiga average is 3.02 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Nõmme Kalju's matches and 65% of Paide's.
What form are Nõmme Kalju and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme Kalju have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Paide 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The statistical background for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.