Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC: match statistics

Orange County SC sit 6th, while Oakland Roots are only 18th, and the visitors’ full-season record stands at 9 wins and 5 losses compared with the hosts’ 6 wins and 8 losses. Away from home, Orange County average 1.82 goals per match, compared with Oakland’s 1.09 at home, and also record a higher shot conversion rate: 17% versus 10%. The visitors have scored in every away match, whereas Oakland have failed to score in 36% of their home fixtures, significantly increasing the visitors’ chances. Oakland have the better recent defensive run, conceding just 3 goals in five matches, but Orange County have scored 7 times over the same period and, despite conceding 12 goals, retain greater attacking potential. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Orange County draw 45% of their away matches; however, their 45% away-win rate and positive goal difference of +5 point towards an away victory.

Orange County SC has a very strong BTTS profile: both teams scored in 82% of its league matches, and the team has not finished a single game without scoring. The visitors average 1.82 goals, register 3.73 shots on target per match, and scored an average of 1.4 goals across their last five appearances. Oakland Roots have been weaker offensively recently, averaging just 0.4 goals and recording BTTS in 20% of their last five matches, which clearly limits confidence in the selection. However, Orange County have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game recently, with an average xG against of 1.97, and have kept a clean sheet in only 18% of matches this season, giving the home side a realistic chance to end that run. The combination of an almost certain away goal and a clearly vulnerable visiting defence gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both sides score.

The model expects 2.25 goals, as Oakland have scored only 0.4 goals per match in their last five fixtures, despite averaging 1.20 xG. The hosts have also been relatively solid without the ball: they conceded 0.6 goals per match over this period and have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games this season. Orange County average 1.82 goals per game this season and have scored in 100% of their matches, but their average xG of 1.20 does not point to the potential for a very high-scoring game. Although the visitors have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match in their last five fixtures, Oakland are not currently capitalising on such defensive weaknesses, which limits the case for a high Over. The Under 3.5 line has the edge, as fewer than four goals were scored in 70% of Oakland's matches and 55% of Orange County's matches this season.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a win for Orange County SC, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 8 of their 11 matches, or 73% of the time. The first halves of both teams are usually cautious: Oakland average 0.50 goals in the opening period, while Orange County average 0.64, with the combined first-half goal average standing at just 1.10 and 1.09, respectively. After the break, the visitors’ advantage increases significantly, as they score an average of 1.18 goals compared with Oakland’s 0.70 and collect an average of 1.91 points in second halves, compared with 1.30 for the hosts. Orange County also have a better overall season record, earning 1.82 points per match compared with Oakland’s 1.40, while suffering defeats in only 9% of their matches compared with 40% for the hosts. Although the visitors’ last five matches have been inconsistent, their games have produced an average of 2.8 goals after half-time, supporting a match outcome in their favour only in the second half.