Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: match statistics
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ogre United played BFC Daugavpils in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 19 July 2026. Venue: Salaspils sporta nama stadions. Final score: 0:4.
Current form
Ogre United: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. BFC Daugavpils: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ogre United scores 0.95 and concedes 2.50 goals per match. BFC Daugavpils scores 1.14 and concedes 1.32. League average: 3.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ogre United 64%, BFC Daugavpils 59%. Over 2.5: Ogre United 59%, BFC Daugavpils 41%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.09. Ogre United: 9.7 shots per match, BFC Daugavpils: 12.8.
Match halves
Ogre United: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.64. BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.77.
Goals by minute
Ogre United: 46-60 (6 goals). BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.00 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win ('2'): BFC Daugavpils (5th) have 7 wins this season versus Ogre United (10th) with 3, giving them the seasonal edge. In chance creation the visitors are clearly superior — averaging 13 shots and 4.67 on target per away match versus the hosts' 9.2 and 2.2; their away xG is 1.51 versus the hosts' 1.01 at home, despite the hosts having a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 10%). Defensively both teams are vulnerable: BFC concede 2.11 goals on average away, while Ogre concede 1.8 at home, however Ogre have shipped 15 goals in the last 5 matches (3.0 per game), which weakens their home advantage. Short-term forms are comparable — Ogre have won 3 of their last 5 and average 1.8 points in that period, while the visitors' record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (1.6 points on average). Considering superior shot metrics, higher xG (1.51 vs 1.01) and the season record 7–6–9 versus 3–4–15, I assign 48% chance to the away win, 30% to the home win and 22% to a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal for BTTS is that BFC Daugavpils has a season-long BTTS rate of 100% versus Ogre United's 31%, compared to the league BTTS rate of 56%. In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in 60% of cases; during that span the home side averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded 3.0, while the visitors averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded. Expected goals confirm this tendency: attacking xG in the last 5 matches was 1.91 for the home team and 1.95 for the visitors, whereas xG against was 2.23 (home) vs 1.78 (away), indicating the home side’s susceptibility to conceding chances. Additionally, the visitors have not recorded a single clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets), while the home team has 38% clean sheets seasonally, but that does not offset the visitors’ 100% BTTS. Based on these figures I project BTTS - Yes at 78% and No at 22%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model gives 1.61 xG for Ogre United and 1.53 xG for BFC Daugavpils, totaling ~3.14 expected goals — roughly 0.64 above the 2.5 line. Additionally, BFC has 100% of matches with both teams scoring and 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, while Ogre averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, favoring an open contest. The league averages 2.99 goals per match; hosts had 100% of their last five games over 2.5, visitors 60%, reinforcing the signal for at least three goals. At the same time, matches over 3.5 account for only 23% for the hosts and 44% for the guests, and the expected total of 3.14 is below 3.5, so Over 3.5 is a weaker play. Therefore the best line to play appears to be Over 2.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The home side led at the break in 4 of their matches so far (31%), while a draw at half-time was most common — in 7 matches (54%), and the away team led only once (11%). Ogre United win 46% of their fixtures this season, BFC Daugavpils only 11%; the visitors concede on average 2.11 goals per game while scoring 1.33. Additionally, BFC records BTTS in 100% of matches, meaning both teams almost always score. xG indicates balanced attacking output (home xG 1.55 vs away 1.51), but the visitors’ defense is weaker (xG against 1.66) and they concede on average 1.56 goals in the second half. The hosts also show a tendency to break through just before half-time — 4 goals in minutes 31–45 versus 1 for the visitors — which supports a half-time draw followed by a home turnaround; therefore the recommended HT/FT is X/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ogre United is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.6 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
0.95 goals / match - Ogre United · 1.14 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils is 89% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.5 goals / match - Ogre United · 1.32 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United scores in 68% of matches (15 of 22 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 23% (5 of 22 matches).
BFC Daugavpils scores in 73% of matches (16 of 22 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ogre United
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 124% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.55 pts / match - Ogre United · 1.23 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ogre United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -6 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (12 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Ogre United | Liga | BFC Daugavpils | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.45 | 3.00 | ▼ 2.45 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 58% | • 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 56% | ▼ 41% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 5% | 23% | • 23% |
| Goal before half-time | • 77% | 76% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 85% | • 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Ogre United 0 - 0 - 2 BFC Daugavpils. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
The Virsliga match finished Ogre United 0:4 BFC Daugavpils. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Ogre United won 0, BFC Daugavpils won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
Ogre United score 0.95 goals per game on average and BFC Daugavpils 1.14. The Virsliga average is 3.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Ogre United's matches and 59% of BFC Daugavpils's.
What form are Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils in?
Over the last 5 games Ogre United have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and BFC Daugavpils 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.