Paide vs Tallinna FC Levadia: match statistics

Tallinna FC Levadia lead the league and have won 18 of 24 matches, while Paide have recorded 12 victories and already suffered 6 defeats. The visitors are in excellent form: they have won all 5 of their last matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding just 4, whereas Paide collected 7 points over the same period with a goal difference of 8:9. Away from home, Levadia win 85% of their matches and remain unbeaten, averaging 2.46 goals per game compared with Paide’s 1.55 at home. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.63, with 22.62 shots and 7.92 shots on target per match, while Paide record 1.70 xG and 4.09 shots on target. The hosts are dangerous on their own ground, where they win 64% of matches, but Levadia have not failed to score in an away fixture, which further strengthens the pick for a league-leaders’ victory.

The signal for both teams to score is particularly strong on Levadia’s side: 92% of its league matches ended with BTTS, while the figure stood at 60% across its last 5 games. Paide has recorded only 45% BTTS throughout the season and kept a clean sheet in 55% of matches, but its recent run points to a more open style, as both teams scored in 80% of its last 5 appearances, while Paide conceded an average of 1.8 goals. Levadia is highly dangerous offensively, scoring an average of 2.46 goals, generating 2.63 xG and recording 7.92 shots on target per match, giving it a strong chance of breaking down the home side’s defence. Paide should not be written off either, as it scores an average of 2.91 goals, while Levadia’s defence has kept a clean sheet in only 8% of matches. Despite Paide’s solid season-long defensive record, the combination of current form and Levadia’s exceptionally low number of clean sheets provides stronger support for the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least two goals: the 1.5-goal line has been surpassed in 100% of Paide’s matches and 92% of Levadia’s. Levadia are in excellent offensive form, scoring 18 goals in their last 5 appearances—an average of 3.6 per match—with an xG of 2.84. Over the same period, Paide conceded 9 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.54, clearly strengthening the prospects of away goals. The hosts also have attacking arguments, averaging 2.91 goals at home throughout the season and registering 6.55 shots on target per match. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as both teams scored at least once in 100% of their matches, while the projected total of 3.35 goals provides a clear margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Tallinn FC Levadia win at full-time. Paide had very strong first-half statistics throughout the season, leading in 73% of matches and conceding an average of just 0.09 goals before the break. However, they have failed to take the lead in any of their last five matches and went into half-time trailing in 40% of them. Levadia have won all five of their last matches, scoring an average of 3.6 goals while conceding just 0.8, and have a perfect post-break winning record with a goal difference of plus 12. The visitors also create more chances over the course of the season, recording an xG of 2.63 compared with Paide’s 2.24, as well as an average of 7.92 shots on target per match compared with 6.55. A draw after 45 minutes is a realistic possibility, as Levadia were level at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, but their superior current efficiency after the break should secure the full-time victory.