Paphos vs Aris: match statistics
Paphos vs Aris: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Paphos played Aris in First Division (Cyprus). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Paphos: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Aris: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Paphos scores 1.82 and concedes 1.09 goals per match. Aris scores 1.70 and concedes 1.09. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Paphos 48%, Aris 45%. Over 2.5: Paphos 52%, Aris 58%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Aris has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.48. Paphos: 11.4 shots per match, Aris: 12.9.
Match halves
Paphos: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.00. Aris: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.97.
Goals by minute
Paphos: 76-90+ (24 goals). Aris: 76-90+ (18 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First Division: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a Paphos win. At home Paphos averages 2.00 goals scored and concedes only 0.81 per game, has a 56% home win rate, 50% clean sheets and a positive home goal difference of +19. Aris away averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.19 conceded, holds only a 25% away win rate and 31% of away matches without scoring, which limits their chances. Additionally, Paphos generates 1.54 xG at home versus Aris’s 1.44 xG away, boasts a superior conversion rate of 16% compared to 11% and averages 4.56 shots on target per game versus Aris’s 4.31, indicating greater offensive efficiency. In the last 5 matches Paphos scored 8 and conceded 9 (1-2-2), while Aris scored 5 and conceded 6 (2-1-2); despite Aris having a slightly better PPG in the last 5 (1.4 vs 1.0), the home-stat advantage and finishing efficiency give Paphos a clear edge, hence a 60/25/15 split.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I favour the BTTS - Yes scenario: Paphos averages 2.24 goals per home match and failed to score in only 6% of games (scoring in 94%), with an offensive xG of 1.87 versus Aris’s average away xG conceded of 1.13. Aris scores 1.13 goals on average away and fails to score in 31% of away matches, but posts an offensive xG of 1.44 and concedes 1.19 goals away on the season, providing a realistic chance of at least one goal. Signals are partially conflicting – season BTTS rates are 47% for Paphos and 44% for Aris, while in the last 5 matches Paphos had BTTS in 80% and Aris only in 20%, giving a strong bias from the home side but a weaker signal from the visitors. Additionally, Paphos averages 15.0 shots and 5.76 on target per match versus Aris’s 10.56 and 4.31, and Paphos conceded 1.8 goals on average in their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood the opponent will score. Considering the 94% chance the hosts will score, xG 1.87 vs 1.44 and the mixed form signals, I estimate BTTS at 62% (Yes) versus 38% (No).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Paphos averages 2.24 goals at home, Aris averages 1.13 away; home xG is 1.87 versus Aris’ defensive xG 1.13, yielding an expected 1.50 xG for Paphos and 1.29 xG for Aris (total 2.79). Season-long Over 1.5 occurred in 82% of Paphos’ home matches and 81% of Aris’ away matches, which combined with a total xG of 2.79 suggests a high probability of at least two goals (estimated 79%). The 2.5 line gives a weaker signal: seasonal 71% for Paphos vs 44% for Aris and in the last 5 matches Paphos/Aris Over 2.5 appeared in 60%/40%, therefore I rate Over 2.5 at about 55%. Over 3.5 is around 30%, because seasonally 47%/13% and the expected-goals distribution (2.79) reduce the chance of 4+ goals. In summary, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over, line 1.5), since both the seasonal 82%/81% and the expected 2.79 goals clearly exceed the 1.5-goal threshold.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Paphos is clearly stronger at home: they average 2.24 goals per home match (xG 1.87), take an average of 15.0 shots with 5.76 on target, whereas Aris averages 1.13 goals per away match (xG 1.44) and 4.31 shots on target. The hosts have led at the break in 53% of home games (9 times) and score an average of 0.94 goals before half-time, while Aris scores an average of 0.5 goals by half-time away and leads at the break in only 25% of away fixtures. Additionally, the proportion of matches in which both teams scored before the break is only 18% for the hosts and 19% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood that Paphos will be solely in the lead after 45 minutes. In the second half Paphos can extend their advantage — averaging 1.29 goals after the break and scoring at least once after half-time in 88% of home matches — while Aris adds only 0.63 goals after the break, so the hosts have a statistical edge to either maintain or enlarge the lead. Given Paphos’s 59% home win rate versus Aris’s 25% away win rate, the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead for the hosts and a final win (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Paphos | Aris | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Aris is 133% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Paphos · 1.4 pts / match - Aris
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.82 goals / match - Paphos · 1.7 goals / match - Aris
Paphos scores in 85% of matches (28 of 33 matches), while Aris keeps a clean sheet in 42% (14 of 33 matches).
Aris scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Paphos
Over / Under - Aris
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.73 pts / match - Paphos · 1.52 pts / match - Aris
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Aris - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (24 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Paphos
Aris
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| Paphos | Liga | Aris | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.91 | 2.61 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 48% | 43% | ▲ 45% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 48% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 31% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 79% | ▲ 85% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Paphos 1 - 2 - 0 Aris. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Paphos vs Aris?
The First Division match finished Paphos 2:0 Aris. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Paphos and Aris?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Paphos won 1, Aris won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Paphos vs Aris?
Paphos score 1.82 goals per game on average and Aris 1.70. The First Division average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Paphos's matches and 45% of Aris's.
What form are Paphos and Aris in?
Over the last 5 games Paphos have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Aris 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Paphos vs Aris?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Paphos vs Aris: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.