Penybont vs Colwyn Bay: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly balanced encounter between the two sides. Penybont occupies a higher league position (3rd place), but they are in a disastrous run of form – zero wins in their last 5 matches and an average of just 0.2 points per game. Colwyn Bay, on the other hand, is in excellent form with 3 victories in their last 5 outings and 1.8 points per game. A key factor is the home advantage for the hosts – a 36% win rate and a positive goal difference (+4) in home matches, while the visitors have an identical 43% win and loss rate on the road. The average goals in both teams' matches (2.0 for Penybont at home, 1.86 for Colwyn Bay away) and similar xG values suggest an open match. Considering the visitors' current form and the hosts' home statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable outcome of this balanced fixture.
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Penybont played Colwyn Bay in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Penybont: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Colwyn Bay: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Penybont scores 1.34 and concedes 1.55 goals per match. Colwyn Bay scores 1.38 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Penybont 45%, Colwyn Bay 48%. Over 2.5: Penybont 48%, Colwyn Bay 45%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Colwyn Bay has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.44. Penybont: 10.3 shots per match, Colwyn Bay: 11.8.
Match halves
Penybont: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.90. Colwyn Bay: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Penybont: 46-60 (11 goals). Colwyn Bay: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 4.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very evenly balanced encounter between the two sides. Penybont occupies a higher league position (3rd place), but they are in a disastrous run of form – zero wins in their last 5 matches and an average of just 0.2 points per game. Colwyn Bay, on the other hand, is in excellent form with 3 victories in their last 5 outings and 1.8 points per game. A key factor is the home advantage for the hosts – a 36% win rate and a positive goal difference (+4) in home matches, while the visitors have an identical 43% win and loss rate on the road. The average goals in both teams' matches (2.0 for Penybont at home, 1.86 for Colwyn Bay away) and similar xG values suggest an open match. Considering the visitors' current form and the hosts' home statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable outcome of this balanced fixture.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Penybont has a very high seasonal BTTS share (67%) and low CS (20%), which suggests frequent matches with a conceded goal. Colwyn Bay seasonally has a low BTTS (29%) and high FTS (43%), but their current offensive form is improving (1.6 goals in the last 5; xG 1.52). Defensively, the visitors look better in terms of GA (0.86), but their xGA 1.62 indicates they allow a lot of quality chances, which increases the chance of a Penybont goal. On the other hand, Penybont concedes an average of 1.6 goals in the last 5 (xGA 1.72), which favors Colwyn Bay also scoring. In summary: a goal from the hosts seems certain, and the chances of an away goal are moderately high, so I slightly prefer BTTS: Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on average goals and xG indicates a total of approximately 2.71 goals (1.37 for Penybont and 1.34 for Colwyn Bay), which supports the scenario of a match with at least two goals. Penybont generates a solid volume of shots (12.13) and shots on target (4.87) and has a high seasonal Over 1.5 at home (80%), while both teams very frequently exceed Over 0.5 (93% each). Colwyn Bay does have a low seasonal Over 2.5 (29%) and a very low Over 3.5 (7%), which limits the probability of a high-scoring game but does not rule out 2–3 goals. The last 5 matches increase the risk of goals (both teams at 60% Over 2.5), and Penybont's defense in the last 5 matches concedes an average of 1.6 goals. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as it combines the highest predicted frequency with additional evidence from xG, shots, and recent match trends.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal comes from the form over the last 5 matches: Penybont averages only 0.2 PPG, with a 0% win rate and 0.6 goals scored on average, while Colwyn Bay boasts 1.8 PPG, a 60% win rate, and 1.6 goals scored. The first-half trends also favor the visitors: in their last 5, Penybont averages 0.2 goals by halftime, whereas Colwyn Bay has been leading at HT in 60% of those matches and conceding only 0.2 goals. Defensively, Colwyn Bay has better seasonal metrics (0.86 goals conceded per match, 36% CS) than Penybont (1.47 goals conceded, 20% CS), which supports holding a lead after the break. At the same time, Penybont frequently draws at half-time (40% seasonally, 60% in last5), making a HT draw a realistic scenario. After halftime, Colwyn Bay has a very high percentage of draws in the second half (71%), which statistically supports the 'draw at half-time, followed by control and a late win' model.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Penybont | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Colwyn Bay is 800% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Penybont · 1.8 pts / match - Colwyn Bay
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Colwyn Bay is 32% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.55 goals / match - Penybont · 1.17 goals / match - Colwyn Bay
Penybont scores in 66% of matches (19 of 29 matches), while Colwyn Bay keeps a clean sheet in 28% (8 of 29 matches).
Colwyn Bay scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Penybont
Over / Under - Colwyn Bay
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Colwyn Bay is 44% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Penybont · 1.48 pts / match - Colwyn Bay
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Penybont - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Colwyn Bay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Penybont | Liga | Colwyn Bay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.90 | 2.91 | ▼ 2.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 51% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 48% | 55% | ▼ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 29% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 73% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▼ 55% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Penybont 1 - 0 - 2 Colwyn Bay. Average goals 4.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Penybont 0:0 Colwyn Bay. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Penybont and Colwyn Bay?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Penybont won 1, Colwyn Bay won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?
Penybont score 1.34 goals per game on average and Colwyn Bay 1.38. The Welsh Premier League average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Penybont's matches and 48% of Colwyn Bay's.
What form are Penybont and Colwyn Bay in?
Over the last 5 games Penybont have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Colwyn Bay 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.