Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: match statistics
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Progreso played Deportivo Maldonado in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 16 August 2026. Venue: Parque Abraham Paladino. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Progreso: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Deportivo Maldonado: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Progreso scores 0.78 and concedes 1.52 goals per match. Deportivo Maldonado scores 1.65 and concedes 1.04. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Progreso 43%, Deportivo Maldonado 61%. Over 2.5: Progreso 43%, Deportivo Maldonado 52%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Deportivo Maldonado has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.17. Progreso: 8.6 shots per match, Deportivo Maldonado: 11.6.
Match halves
Progreso: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.43. Deportivo Maldonado: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Progreso: 76-90+ (7 goals). Deportivo Maldonado: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Deportivo Maldonado sit 3rd, while Progreso are seventh, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 12 matches and suffered just 5 defeats, compared with the hosts’ 4 wins and 15 losses. Progreso are in poor form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 3 goals in that run, whereas Maldonado have suffered only one defeat during the same period. Away from home, the visitors average 1.45 goals per match, with 1.35 xG, while Progreso concede 1.64 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in just 9% of matches. Maldonado’s superiority is also evident in chance creation and finishing: they average 10.55 shots and 4 shots on target per match, with a 14% conversion rate, compared with Progreso’s 8.82 shots, 3 on target and 10% efficiency. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the visitors have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ weak attacking output—they fail to score in 45% of home games—points towards an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Although both teams have frequently recorded matches with goals at both ends throughout the season, with BTTS rates of 58% for Progreso and 64% for Deportivo Maldonado, the hosts’ current form clearly weakens this scenario. Progreso have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals per game, while BTTS occurred in only 40% of their matches during this period. Deportivo Maldonado have recently conceded an average of 1.2 goals and allow opponents an xG of 1.11, giving them a realistic chance of keeping out the less effective hosts. On the other hand, Progreso have a solid defensive record this season, conceding an average of 0.83 goals and keeping 42% clean sheets, so the visitors are not guaranteed to score either. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Seasonal data points to moderate scoring potential: Progreso average 1.83 goals at home, while Deportivo Maldonado average 1.45 away, but the hosts’ recent form clearly lowers the projection. In their last five matches, Progreso scored only 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, with an xG of 1.21, while the visitors averaged 1.4 goals per game, although their xG stood at 1.31. The 3.5 line was not surpassed in 75% of the hosts’ matches and 73% of Deportivo Maldonado’s away fixtures, while both teams very rarely concede more than 3 goals. The last five matches for each side produced Over 2.5 in only 40% of cases, supporting a scenario with a maximum of three goals. The projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Recent form clearly favors Deportivo Maldonado: Progreso have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of just 0.6 goals, while the visitors have suffered only one defeat during this period. The home side have recently been leading at the break in only 20% of their matches and averaged 0.2 goals, whereas Deportivo Maldonado led after 45 minutes in 40% of their games and scored an average of 1.0 goal. Over the season as a whole, Progreso remain strong at home, with a 67% win rate and an average of 1.83 goals scored, but their current decline in attacking efficiency significantly reduces the importance of this advantage. The visitors have the better recent first-half record, while the hosts’ poor run makes Deportivo Maldonado leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage until full-time the most likely single HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Progreso | Deportivo Maldonado | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Deportivo Maldonado is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Progreso · 1.2 pts / match - Deportivo Maldonado
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Deportivo Maldonado is 112% better for: goals scored per match.
0.78 goals / match - Progreso · 1.65 goals / match - Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado is 46% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.52 goals / match - Progreso · 1.04 goals / match - Deportivo Maldonado
Progreso scores in 52% of matches (12 of 23 matches), while Deportivo Maldonado keeps a clean sheet in 35% (8 of 23 matches).
Deportivo Maldonado scores in 87% of matches (20 of 23 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 9% (2 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Progreso
Over / Under - Deportivo Maldonado
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Deportivo Maldonado is 141% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.74 pts / match - Progreso · 1.78 pts / match - Deportivo Maldonado
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Deportivo Maldonado - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Progreso | Liga | Deportivo Maldonado | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.30 | 2.35 | ▲ 2.70 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 51% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 43% | 44% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 29% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 67% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Progreso 1 - 0 - 1 Deportivo Maldonado. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The Primera División match finished Progreso 0:2 Deportivo Maldonado. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Progreso won 1, Deportivo Maldonado won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Progreso score 0.78 goals per game on average and Deportivo Maldonado 1.65. The Primera División average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Progreso's matches and 61% of Deportivo Maldonado's.
What form are Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado in?
Over the last 5 games Progreso have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Deportivo Maldonado 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
The statistical background for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.