RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli: match statistics
RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
RB Leipzig played St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
RB Leipzig: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. St. Pauli: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
RB Leipzig scores 1.97 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. St. Pauli scores 0.84 and concedes 1.72. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: RB Leipzig 59%, St. Pauli 53%. Over 2.5: RB Leipzig 69%, St. Pauli 53%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
RB Leipzig has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.21. RB Leipzig: 15.9 shots per match, St. Pauli: 10.3.
Match halves
RB Leipzig: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.03. St. Pauli: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
RB Leipzig: 31-45+ (12 goals). St. Pauli: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). RB Leipzig sit 3rd and have scored 63 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 27; at home they average 2.38 goals per game with xG 2.02 and 17.56 average shots, while the visitors average 0.69 goals away with xG 1.10 on 10 shots. Defensively Leipzig concede 1.19 goals at home on average, and St. Pauli concede 1.69 away; hosts keep 38% clean sheets at home versus 19% for the visitors. Efficiency and quality of chances favor the hosts: 7.44 shots on target and a 14% conversion rate for Leipzig vs 2.5 on target and 7% conversion for St. Pauli, and the visitors failed to score in 44% of away matches while Leipzig have not had a goalless home game (0%). Considering form (Leipzig 4 wins in last 5, averaging 2.4 pts per game vs St. Pauli 0 wins, 0.4 pts), xG (2.02 vs 1.10) and season goal difference (63-27), I assign a 70% probability to a home win, 18% to a draw and 12% to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
RB Leipzig has BTTS in 63% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, while St. Pauli has 44% this season and 60% in the last 5; the league average BTTS is 61%, so the general trend favors both teams scoring. Leipzig averages 1.0 goals this season but 2.0 in the last 5 (10 goals), St. Pauli has 0.69 this season and 0.6 in the last 5 (3 goals); despite a weaker attack, St. Pauli concedes a lot — 1.69 this season and 2.2 in the last 5 (11 conceded). From a chance-creation perspective, xG for RB is 1.31 versus 1.1 for St. Pauli, with xG against 1.4 for RB and 1.55 for St. Pauli, which suggests both teams allow defensive risk and generate opportunities. Additionally RB averages 4.31 shots on target versus 2.5 for St. Pauli, and clean sheet rates are only 13% and 19%, so the lack of clean sheets reinforces the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering these figures (63%/80% vs 44%/60%, xG and low clean sheet percentages) I assess BTTS at 72% for 'Yes' and 28% for 'No' — the safest pick is 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate a total of 2.92 goals: 1.63 for RB Leipzig and 1.29 for St. Pauli, calculated from seasonal xG (RB 1.31, St. Pauli 1.10) and opponents’ defensive xG (St. Pauli 1.55, RB 1.40) adjusted for form over the last 5 matches (RB xG 1.92, St. Pauli xG against 1.75). A Poisson distribution with lambda=2.92 indicates ~79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~56% for Over 2.5 goals and ~34% for Over 3.5 goals, giving the strongest signal for overs on the lower lines. RB have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game), with xG 1.92 and 4.31 shots on target per game, while St. Pauli have 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per game) and record 2.5 shots on target per game — this highlights the home side’s offensive edge. Seasonally RB have 69% of home matches Over 2.5 and 81% Over 1.5, while St. Pauli have 38% and 81% respectively; the share of matches where both teams scored is 63% for RB and 44% for St. Pauli, so BTTS is possible but the hosts hold a clear advantage. In summary, the best pick is Over 1.5 given the ~79% probability, RB’s good form (2.0 g/last 5) and seasonal support (81% Over 1.5), whereas Over 2.5 has moderate backing (~56%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 as the most likely scenario: RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and score on average 0.8 goals by half-time in those games, while St. Pauli have not won in their last 5 (0%) and average 0.2 goals by half-time. The home side register 4.31 on-target shots at home versus 2.5 for St. Pauli, and xG is 1.31 against 1.10 for the visitors, suggesting greater danger from the hosts already in the first half. Historically Leipzig led at the break in 19% of home matches, but considering recent form (40% leads at the break in the last 5) I estimate approximately a 35% chance to lead at half-time; if the hosts lead at the break I rate the conversion to a win highly (around 80%), hence a strong signal for 1/1 (roughly 28%). St. Pauli have only a 13% away win rate and concede on average 1.69 goals per match this season, and have recorded 3 losses in their last 5 (60%), which reduces the probability of a turnaround after the break; alternatives with a half-time draw (X/1 22%, X/X 16%) are my second and third choices.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| RB Leipzig | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
RB Leipzig is 500% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - RB Leipzig · 0.4 pts / match - St. Pauli
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 135% better for: goals scored per match.
1.97 goals / match - RB Leipzig · 0.84 goals / match - St. Pauli
RB Leipzig is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - RB Leipzig · 1.72 goals / match - St. Pauli
RB Leipzig scores in 91% of matches (29 of 32 matches), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
St. Pauli scores in 59% of matches (19 of 32 matches), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
Over / Under - St. Pauli
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.66 pts / match - RB Leipzig · 0.97 pts / match - St. Pauli
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| RB Leipzig | Liga | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.28 | 3.22 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 59% | 62% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 63% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 21% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | • 84% | 85% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: RB Leipzig 0 - 1 - 0 St. Pauli. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
The Bundesliga match finished RB Leipzig 2:1 St. Pauli. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
RB Leipzig score 1.97 goals per game on average and St. Pauli 0.84. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 59% of RB Leipzig's matches and 53% of St. Pauli's.
What form are RB Leipzig and St. Pauli in?
Over the last 5 games RB Leipzig have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and St. Pauli 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.