Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar: match statistics

Red Star Belgrade have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 18 goals in that span, while Novi Pazar have managed just 4 goals and suffered 2 defeats. The hosts have won every match at home so far, averaging 4 goals from an xG of 2.72 and registering 24 shots, 10.5 of which have been on target. Their defence has also looked highly stable, conceding an average of 0.5 goals while limiting opponents to just 0.81 xG. Novi Pazar drew 0:0 in their only away match and failed to score despite recording an xG of 2.23, highlighting a clear problem with chance conversion. The disparity in current form, finishing efficiency and home advantage strongly points towards a convincing victory for the hosts.

The BTTS - No scenario is primarily supported by Novi Pazar’s poor away attacking efficiency: they have yet to score an away goal, failing to find the net in 100% of such matches. In their last 5 games, the visitors averaged just 0.8 goals, while Red Star conceded only 0.6 goals per match over the same period and limited opponents to an xG of 0.70. Novi Pazar have recently created chances worth an average of 1.49 xG, but this translated into just 4 goals in 5 matches, highlighting their finishing problems. The hosts are in excellent form, scoring 18 goals in their last 5 appearances, so a Red Star win with a clean sheet appears more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome.

Crvena zvezda are in excellent form: they have scored 18 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 3.6 per game, while conceding just 3. Their average xG over this period is 2.87, whereas Novi Pazar concede an average of 1.8 goals and allow opponents an xG of 1.49. The visitors themselves average 0.8 goals across their last five appearances, but their xG of 1.49 suggests they could contribute to the scoreline. Over 2.5 goals landed in all five of the hosts’ last matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games over the same period. However, the strongest signal remains Over 1.5, as the hosts’ clear attacking advantage significantly increases the likelihood of at least two goals in the match.

Red Star Belgrade have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.6 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Novi Pazar have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The hosts were leading at the break in 80% of these matches, averaging 1.6 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors were ahead at that stage in only 40% of their games and conceded an average of 0.8 goals. After the interval, Red Star’s superiority is even more pronounced: they averaged 2.0 goals in the second half, compared with just 0.2 for Novi Pazar, while the hosts won the second half in 80% of these matches. Although the visitors have recorded a high average xG of 2.23 and 20 shots, this has not translated into finishing efficiency, as they are yet to score in the current data. The strongest scenario therefore remains Red Star leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes: 1/1.