Riga FC II vs Leevon / PPK: match statistics

Leevon / PPK enter the match as the clearly higher-ranked side: they sit 4th, have recorded 13 wins in 19 matches and won all of their last 5 games, scoring 12 goals in the process. Riga FC II are 8th, have collected just 5 points over their last five league matches and conceded 10 goals, averaging 2 per game. The hosts are offensively dangerous at home, scoring an average of 1.9 goals from 5.9 shots on target, but their defense allows an average of 1.8 goals and an opposition xG of 1.68. Away from home, the visitors concede just 1 goal per match and keep a clean sheet in 56% of their away games, while their average attacking xG stands at 1.67 compared with 1.44 for the hosts. Riga’s home advantage, with the team winning 60% of its home matches, narrows the gap, but their current form and significantly more stable defense point to a Leevon / PPK victory.

Riga FC II recorded BTTS in 90% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five fixtures, while their defense kept a clean sheet in only 10% of appearances. Leevon / PPK are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.4 goals and produced an xG of 2.11 across their last five matches, while Riga FC II conceded 2.0 goals per game during the same period. The hosts have a strong case to score, as they average 2.2 goals per match this season with an xG of 1.79, while the visitors allowed opponents an xG of 1.15 in their last five games. The main risk to BTTS is Leevon / PPK's solid defense, which kept a clean sheet in 56% of their matches this season and has conceded just 0.8 goals on average across their last five fixtures. Nevertheless, the combination of the hosts' very weak defense and both teams' high scoring potential gives a slight but clear edge to the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Riga FC II consistently plays in high-scoring matches: Over 1.5 goals landed in 90% of their games, while Over 2.5 goals also landed in 90%. The hosts concede an average of 1.30 goals per match and have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their appearances, while Leevon / PPK are in excellent form, scoring 12 goals in their last five matches. The visitors are currently generating an average of 2.11 xG, while Riga’s defense has allowed 1.71 xG during this period, strongly supporting at least two goals in the match. However, Leevon / PPK’s defense is more solid, conceding an average of 0.80 goals across their last five fixtures, which is why Over 2.5 carries lower confidence than Over 1.5. The Over 1.5 goals line provides the strongest signal, also compared with the league average of 3.68 goals per match.

The strongest signal is Leevon / PPK’s current form: the visitors have won all of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.8. Leevon / PPK held the lead at the break in 80% of their last five games, while Riga FC II led at half-time in only 20% and went into the interval trailing in 40%. The difference is also reflected in first-half goal production: the visitors have recently averaged 1.6 goals in the opening periods, compared with 0.6 for the hosts, while Riga have conceded 1.2 goals on average. After the break, Leevon / PPK maintain control, having conceded an average of just 0.2 goals in the second half across their last five appearances. Riga do have a very strong home-season record, with an 80% win rate and an average of 2.2 goals scored, but the visitors’ current form advantage and superiority in the first halves favour a scenario in which Leevon / PPK lead at half-time and go on to win, corresponding to the HT/FT 1/1 selection.