Riga vs Ogre United: match statistics

Riga are in excellent form, having won all of their last 5 matches and scored 18 goals in the process, while Ogre United have netted 8 goals over the same period and suffered 2 defeats. The hosts win 85% of their home matches, average 3.00 goals scored and have not lost a single game, whereas the visitors lose 77% of their away fixtures and concede an average of 3.00 goals. The difference in chance quality is clearly reflected in the xG figures: Riga average 2.16 xG at home while conceding 0.82 xG, whereas Ogre United generate 1.19 xG away from home and allow opponents 2.15 xG. The hosts also record significantly more shots, 18.92 compared to 10.54, and shots on target, 6.15 compared to 3.38, while enjoying substantially higher possession at 66% versus 41%. Ogre United have failed to score in 38% of their away matches, so with Riga keeping a clean sheet in 54% of games, a convincing home win is the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is positive, as BTTS occurred in 73% of Riga’s matches and 54% of Ogre United’s fixtures, compared with the league average of 55%. Over the last five matches, these figures rose to 80% for Riga and 60% for Ogre, while the teams averaged 3.6 and 1.6 goals respectively. The home side’s defence has kept no clean sheets this season and concedes an average of 2.0 goals, while Ogre allows opponents 3.0 goals per match. However, the visitors have failed to score in 38% of their matches, and Riga allowed opponents an xG of 1.11 over the last five rounds, which represents the main risk to this pick. Nevertheless, Ogre’s current xG of 2.18 and their average of 2.6 goals conceded per match in their last five outings support an open game script and favour BTTS - Yes.

Riga are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.6 goals in their last five matches, while their average xG was as high as 2.98. Over the same period, Ogre United conceded 2.6 goals per match and allowed opponents an average of 1.98 xG, which clearly strengthens the outlook for at least two goals from the home side. All of the teams’ last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, while Over 1.5 occurred in 82% of Riga’s matches and 100% of Ogre United’s games this season. The visitors also create chances, recording 2.18 xG per match recently, while Riga have failed to keep a clean sheet at any point this season. The strongest selection is Over 1.5, as the projected 3.50 goals and consistently high scoring indicators for both teams give this line the greatest margin of safety.

Riga come into this match in excellent form, having won their last five games while averaging 3.6 goals scored and conceding just 1.4 per match. Ogre United have lost 77% of their matches this season, with their defence conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game and recording an xGA of 2.15. The hosts have taken the lead at the break more frequently in their recent run, doing so in 2 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 40% of those appearances. The second half is also crucial: Riga have averaged 2.8 goals after the break across their last five matches, while Ogre have conceded 1.6 goals during that period. The HT/FT scenario of Riga leading at half-time and securing the final victory therefore has the strongest support from their current form and the visitors’ clearly vulnerable defence.