Rudar vs Dekani: match statistics

Rudar are clear favorites at home: they have won 83% of their home matches and have not lost any, while Dekani have lost 67% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 2.67 goals and 6 shots on target per home match, whereas the visitors score just 0.33 goals and average 3.83 shots on target away from home. The difference in finishing efficiency is particularly significant: Rudar convert 17% of their shots at home, compared with just 3% for Dekani away, and the visitors have failed to score in 83% of those matches. Although both teams have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last five matches, Rudar concede an average of just 0.67 goals at home. Average xG stands at 1.93 for the hosts and 1.71 for the visitors in their respective home and away matches, but Dekani’s poor finishing so far clearly limits their chances of winning.

The strongest signal points to Dekani failing to score: they average just 0.33 goals away from home and have failed to find the net in 83% of their matches, while Rudar have kept a clean sheet in 88% of their home games. This is reinforced by Dekani’s last five appearances, in which they scored a total of 2 goals, and neither match featured goals from both teams. Rudar’s home matches have also seen a 0% rate of both teams scoring, although Rudar themselves failed to score in 50% of them. Dekani’s xG of 1.71 warrants some caution, as it suggests they create more chances than their conversion rate indicates. However, with an average of 0.33 goals away from home and just 3% of shots converted, the more likely scenario remains that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: none of Rudar’s home matches or Dekani’s away matches to date have gone over this line. The 2.5-goal line has also been exceeded rarely—in 13% of Rudar’s home matches and 17% of Dekani’s away matches. The visitors average just 0.33 goals away from home and have failed to score in 83% of those matches, while Rudar have kept a clean sheet in 88% of their home games. Although the teams’ xG figures are 1.48 and 1.71 respectively, their actual scoring efficiency and results to date support the more cautious forecast of 1.85 total goals. The 3.5 line offers a greater margin than 2.5 and is the best fit for the consistently low goal counts in both teams’ matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Rudar were level at the break in 50% of their home matches, while Dekani were in 67% of their away games. The visitors failed to score before half-time in 83% of away matches and kept a clean sheet at the break in their last five games, pointing to a goalless first half. The low scoring rates of both teams in these conditions support the draw holding: Rudar average 0.75 goals at home, while Dekani average 0.33 goals per away match. The hosts kept a clean sheet in 88% of their home games, but failed to score themselves in 50% of them, so a full-time draw remains a realistic possibility despite their advantage. A Rudar win is a significant alternative, as they have won 50% of their home matches, while Dekani have lost 67% of their away games; however, with goals expected to be scarce, I rate a draw both at half-time and at full-time as the most likely outcome.