St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers: match statistics

St Patrick's Athl. sit second, but they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, thanks to 3 wins and a draw, while league leaders Shamrock Rovers have managed just 3 points during that period and have not won a single match. At home, the hosts win 60% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.93 goals and conceding just 0.67, which contrasts sharply with Shamrock Rovers' away averages of 1.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. St Patrick's also hold the edge in chance creation: their average xG stands at 2.17 compared with the visitors' 1.54, while they register 6.8 shots on target per match versus 4.2 for their opponents. Shamrock Rovers enjoy higher average possession, 63% to 58%, but have scored only 6 goals and conceded 8 in their last five appearances. A closely contested match is expected, but current form and St Patrick's highly reliable home numbers point towards a home win.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 57% of St Patrick's Athletic’s matches and 53% of Shamrock Rovers’ games, while the figure stood at 60% for both sides over the last five rounds. The hosts average 1.79 goals per match, compared with 1.40 for Shamrock, supported by solid xG figures of 1.62 and 1.54 respectively. Recent defensive form increases the likelihood of goals, as St Patrick's have conceded an average of 1.2 goals lately, while Rovers have conceded as many as 1.6. Shamrock failed to score in 27% of matches, which is the main risk to the pick, whereas the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 43% of games. Nevertheless, the combination of current BTTS figures, attacking potential and the elevated number of goals conceded recently slightly favors the scenario in which both teams score.

St Patrick's average 1.79 goals, while Shamrock Rovers average 1.40, but both teams also have solid defensive figures: the hosts concede just 0.79 goals per match, compared with 1.07 for the visitors. The average xG figures suggest a tight match, standing at 1.62 for the hosts and 1.54 for the visitors, while their opponents allow 1.18 and 1.23 xG respectively. In their last five matches, both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their games, but over the course of the season, the 3.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 29% of St Patrick's matches and 27% of Shamrock Rovers' matches. Additionally, neither team has conceded more than three goals in a single match this season, further strengthening the case for Under 3.5 goals.

St Patrick's Athl. hold a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 71% of matches, while Shamrock Rovers were trailing at half-time in 40% of games. The hosts average 1.14 goals scored and just 0.29 conceded before the interval, whereas the visitors score only 0.60 goals during this period and concede 0.67. The full-season picture also favors St Patrick's, who win 71% of their matches, averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.79 conceded, compared with Shamrock Rovers' 40% win rate and average of 1.07 goals conceded. The visitors' recent form is poor, as they have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals while conceding 1.6. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts capitalize on their advantage before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle, making the 1/1 HT/FT outcome the most plausible.