Super Nova vs FS Jelgava: match statistics
Super Nova vs FS Jelgava: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played FS Jelgava in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 25 June 2026. Venue: Olaines stadions. Final score: 1:5.
Current form
Super Nova: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. FS Jelgava: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.00 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. FS Jelgava scores 0.89 and concedes 1.79. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 58%, FS Jelgava 47%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 53%, FS Jelgava 37%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
FS Jelgava has higher xG: 1.29 vs 1.11. Super Nova: 8.2 shots per match, FS Jelgava: 10.5.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.42. FS Jelgava: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.37.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 16-30 (5 goals). FS Jelgava: 0-15 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-3. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Super Nova has serious form and defensive issues: in the last 5 matches they earned only 1 point (0.2 points per match), scored 2 goals and conceded 9, and at home concede on average 1.88 goals and still have no clean sheets (0%). FS Jelgava has been better recently — in their last five games they have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (1.2 points per match) and scored 7 goals, with an away xG of 1.16 versus the home teams' 0.99 xG. Offensively the hosts are more efficient in terms of accuracy: Super Nova averages 7.38 shots per match with 3.38 on target and a 15% conversion rate translating to 1.13 goals per match, while Jelgava averages 9.22 shots, only 2.67 on target and about a 7% conversion giving 0.67 goals away. Key advantages: the visitors have better form and higher xG (1.16 vs 0.99), while the hosts have weaker defense (average 1.9 xG against and 1.88 goals conceded in home matches), yet Super Nova compensates with better finishing and a lower share of goalless games (13% vs 44%). Accordingly I predict a draw as the most likely outcome, estimating 20% for a home win, 50% for a draw and 30% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Super Nova averages 1.1 goals scored and concedes 1.9 goals per match this season, while FS Jelgava scores 0.67 and concedes 1.67; clean sheets are rare: 10% for Super Nova and 22% for Jelgava. In the last 5 matches Jelgava has BTTS in 80% of games and scored 7 goals (avg. 1.4), whereas Super Nova has BTTS in 40% and scored only 2 goals (avg. 0.4), indicating the visitors are in better attacking form. xG stats over the last 5 matches are 1.11 for Super Nova and 1.6 for Jelgava with xG conceded at 1.76 and 1.66 respectively, so both teams create and allow around 1.6 xG per game. Additionally the league has a BTTS rate of 57% and an average of 3.0 goals per match, and the season BTTS for the teams are 50% (Super Nova) and 44% (Jelgava), which together with low clean sheet percentages and average shots on target of 3.9 and 2.67 favors the both teams to score scenario. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 65% vs 35% and I pick "Yes" (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I prefer the Over side on the 1.5 line because both teams have a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Super Nova 70% and FS Jelgava 67%, averaging ~68%. An xG-based model indicates expected goals: home xG_for 1.41 vs away xG_against 1.84 => ~1.63 for Super Nova; away xG_for 1.16 vs home xG_against 1.60 => ~1.38 for Jelgava; total ≈ 3.01 goals. Although seasonal Over 2.5 percentages are lower individually (40% for the home side, 33% for the away), the league averages 3.0 goals per game, and both teams have 100%/89% of matches with at least one goal and BTTS 50%/44%, which increases the likelihood of at least two goals. As a result, I assign a 75% probability to Over 1.5 and 60% to Over 2.5; Over 3.5 is less likely (32%) given seasonal Over 3.5: 30%/33% and Super Nova’s weaker form in the last 5 matches (avg. 0.4 goals vs 1.4 for FS Jelgava). The best line to play is Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-time statistics favor the visitors: FS Jelgava led at the break in 4 of their matches to date (44%), while Super Nova led in 3 matches (30%), and first-half draws occurred on average around 31% (30–33%). The visitors also display a high proportion of clean first halves — 78% of matches without conceding before the break — and in their last 5 matches they conceded on average only 0.2 goals by half-time versus 1.2 goals conceded by the hosts over the same period. At the same time Super Nova performs markedly better after the break: points gained in second halves amount to 12 versus 4 for Jelgava, with an average of 1.2 second-half points for the hosts compared to 0.44 for the visitors, indicating the hosts’ tendency to improve their result after the interval. Additionally, the visitors have a high share of full-time draws (56%), and their losses in second halves reach 78%, so the scenario of the visitors leading at the break with the match ending in a draw is most consistent with the data. On this basis I prefer the 2/X market (visitors lead at half-time, match ends in a draw) as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
FS Jelgava is 500% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.2 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Super Nova · 0.89 goals / match - FS Jelgava
Super Nova is 26% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Super Nova · 1.79 goals / match - FS Jelgava
Super Nova scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
FS Jelgava scores in 58% of matches (11 of 19 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
FS Jelgava is 28% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.42 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 21%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -10 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.42 | 2.94 | ▼ 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 57% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 53% | 54% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 24% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 75% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 84% | 84% | • 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Super Nova 0 - 3 - 3 FS Jelgava. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:5 FS Jelgava. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and FS Jelgava?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 0, FS Jelgava won 3 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
Super Nova score 1.00 goals per game on average and FS Jelgava 0.89. The Virsliga average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Super Nova's matches and 47% of FS Jelgava's.
What form are Super Nova and FS Jelgava in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and FS Jelgava 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs FS Jelgava?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Super Nova vs FS Jelgava: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.