Super Nova vs Ogre United: match statistics
Super Nova vs Ogre United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Super Nova played Ogre United in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 6 July 2026. Venue: Olaines stadions. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Super Nova: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Ogre United: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Super Nova scores 1.05 and concedes 1.57 goals per match. Ogre United scores 0.90 and concedes 2.57. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Super Nova 62%, Ogre United 62%. Over 2.5: Super Nova 57%, Ogre United 57%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Super Nova has higher xG: 1.12 vs 1.05. Super Nova: 8.3 shots per match, Ogre United: 9.3.
Match halves
Super Nova: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.43. Ogre United: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Super Nova: 16-30 (5 goals). Ogre United: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win. Super Nova averages 1.11 goals per home match with 3.44 shots on target, a 15% conversion rate and fails to score in only 11% of home games. Ogre United averages just 0.64 goals away with 2.91 shots on target, a 7% conversion rate and fails to score in 45% of away matches, which markedly limits their offensive potential. In their last five matches Super Nova scored 4 goals and have a 1-1-3 record, averaging 0.8 points per game, while Ogre have scored 6 goals and sit at 2-0-3, about 1.2 points per game. Defensively the visitors look worse: Ogre conceded 16 goals in their last 5 matches (3.2 per game) versus Super Nova’s 10 conceded (2.0 per game), and over the season the visitors have 54 goals conceded compared to 33 for the hosts. Average xG are similar (1.02 xG for Super Nova vs 1.09 xG for Ogre), but the hosts’ superior shot efficiency (15% vs 7%) and lower goals conceded lead me to favor a Super Nova victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - Yes: Super Nova posts a season BTTS rate of 80% versus Ogre United’s 45%, with a league average of 56%, favoring a "yes" outcome. Both teams concede frequently — Super Nova concedes 1.8 goals per game seasonally (33 conceded) and 2.0 in the last 5, while Ogre United concedes 3.27 seasonally (54 conceded) and 3.2 in the last 5 — this raises the likelihood both sides will concede. Offensively Super Nova scores 1.2 goals seasonally (last 5: 0.8), Ogre scores 0.64 seasonally (last 5: 1.2); xG is 1.01 for Super Nova and 1.09 for Ogre, while xG against is 2.04 and 2.15, meaning both teams generate chances and allow opponents’ opportunities. Additionally, Ogre averages 2.91 shots on target per game versus Super Nova’s 2.2, Super Nova converts better (13% vs 7%) and has 0% clean sheets this season (Ogre 9%), therefore I assess BTTS at 70% vs 30% for 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Super Nova scores on average 1.2 goals per match and concedes 1.8, while Ogre United scores 0.64 and concedes as many as 3.27 goals per match, indicating a tendency toward higher totals on the opponent's side. xG analysis confirms this risk: home xG for Super Nova is 1.01 vs xG against Ogre 2.15, yielding an average 1.58 expected goals for Super Nova; for Ogre xG 1.09 vs xG against 2.04 gives 1.57, totaling 3.15 expected goals. Seasonally both teams often exceed 1.5 goals: Super Nova in 80% of matches and Ogre in 100%, and Over2.5 rates are 40% and 73% for the season and 60% and 80% in the last 5 matches respectively, therefore I estimate about a 65% chance for Over2.5. Over3.5 is less certain: season Over3.5 is 30% (home) and 64% (away), i.e. roughly a 46% chance for Over3.5, so Under3.5 has a slight edge. Based on this the safest and strongest signal is Over 1.5 (92% chance), with a projected total score of around 3.15 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
First-half statistics show Super Nova scores an average of 0.5 goals by the break versus 0.18 for Ogre United, while the visitors concede an average of 1.64 goals before halftime, giving the home side an advantage in creating opportunities already in the first half. In Super Nova’s last five matches there was a draw at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5), whereas Ogre were trailing at halftime in 80% (4 of 5), hence the natural scenario is a draw at the break. In the second half the hosts score an average of 0.7 goals and achieve 1.4 points per match in second halves, while Ogre score 0.45 goals and concede an average of 1.64 after the break, which favors Super Nova mounting a comeback or deciding the result. Both teams’ xG figures are similar (1.01 for Super Nova versus 1.09 for Ogre), but the hosts’ superior efficiency (shot conversion 13% versus 7%) suggests that with similar xG Super Nova more often converts chances into goals; therefore the most reliable signal is a draw at halftime and a home win at full-time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Super Nova | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ogre United is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Super Nova · 1.2 pts / match - Ogre United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Super Nova is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.05 goals / match - Super Nova · 0.9 goals / match - Ogre United
Super Nova is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.57 goals / match - Super Nova · 2.57 goals / match - Ogre United
Super Nova scores in 76% of matches (16 of 21 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 21 matches).
Ogre United scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Super Nova
Over / Under - Ogre United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Super Nova is 102% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Super Nova · 0.52 pts / match - Ogre United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ogre United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 10%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -8 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Super Nova
Ogre United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Super Nova | Liga | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.62 | 2.99 | ▲ 3.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 62% | 57% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 55% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 23% | ▼ 5% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 76% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 84% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Super Nova 2 - 0 - 0 Ogre United. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Super Nova vs Ogre United?
The Virsliga match finished Super Nova 1:2 Ogre United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Super Nova and Ogre United?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Super Nova won 2, Ogre United won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Super Nova vs Ogre United?
Super Nova score 1.05 goals per game on average and Ogre United 0.90. The Virsliga average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 62% of Super Nova's matches and 62% of Ogre United's.
What form are Super Nova and Ogre United in?
Over the last 5 games Super Nova have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Ogre United 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Super Nova vs Ogre United?
The statistical background for Super Nova vs Ogre United — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.