Tallinna FC Flora vs Tammeka: match statistics

Tallinna FC Flora have significantly stronger home numbers: they average 2.18 goals with an xG of 2.09, while Tammeka score just 1.10 goals per away match. The hosts also dominate possession (59% to 51%) and record a similar number of shots on target, 5.64 to 5.80, but their conversion rate stands at 13%, compared with just 6% for the visitors. However, Tammeka arrive in excellent recent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches and conceding only 6 goals in that run, while Flora have lost 4 of their last 5 games, conceding 13 goals. Despite the weaker trend, Flora have won 55% of their home matches, whereas Tammeka have lost 50% of their away fixtures and concede an average of 2.00 goals on the road. The hosts’ superior chance-creation quality and home advantage give them a slightly better chance of winning, although the visitors’ strong run significantly limits confidence in the pick.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: over the course of the season, both teams have recorded BTTS in 50% of their matches, while Flora has seen this outcome in 3 of their last 5 games. Tammeka concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match, while Flora create chances worth 1.33 xG at home, clearly favouring a goal for the hosts. The visitors have strong attacking numbers away from home — 1.94 xG, 17.5 shots and 5.8 shots on target per match — while Flora have conceded as many as 13 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 2.6 per game. Tammeka have scored an average of 1.4 goals during this period, so their chances of exploiting Flora’s vulnerable defence are high. The only risk is Tammeka’s 40% BTTS rate in their last five matches, but the combination of their attack and the hosts’ current defensive form gives a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes option.

Tammeka concede an average of 2.0 goals per match, which clearly favors Flora, even though the hosts average 1.33 goals scored per game this season. On the other hand, the visitors create an average of 1.94 xG and register 5.8 shots on target per match, while Flora allow their opponents 1.65 xG. Flora’s last five matches have been particularly open: the team conceded 13 goals, or 2.6 per game, and 80% of those matches went over the 2.5-goal line. Both teams also show a high consistency of scoring at least one goal per match, with the 0.5-goal line covered in 92% of Flora’s matches and 90% of Tammeka’s. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.97 goals and the hosts’ defensive problems give this safer line a significant edge.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Flora were level at the break in 58% of their matches, compared with 50% for Tammeka; in their last five games, the visitors recorded this outcome in as many as 60% of cases. Over the same period, Flora were trailing at half-time in 3 of 5 matches and conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break, limiting their chances of controlling the game from the outset. After the interval, Tammeka provides a significantly stronger signal: they won the second half in 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding none. Current form also favours the visitors, who won 4 of their last 5 matches while averaging 2.4 points per game, whereas Flora suffered 4 defeats and collected only 0.6 points per match. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a level score at half-time, followed by the result turning in Tammeka’s favour.