Tallinna FC Levadia vs Tallinna FC Flora: match statistics

Levadia is the favorite based on strong home metrics: the hosts score 2.75 goals per home match and concede only 0.63, with average xG for 2.14 and xG against 0.97, indicating match control and efficiency. Flora has comparable expected output on the road (xG 2.20) but converts far less efficiently — 9% shot conversion versus the hosts' 15% — and averages 1.63 goals away. In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 13 goals, but Levadia has a record of 4 wins and 1 draw (2.6 pts/match), while Flora has 3 wins and 2 losses (1.8 pts/match) and has conceded 7 goals versus Levadia's 4. Additionally, Levadia is unbeaten at home this season (0% losses) and has 0% home matches without scoring, whereas Flora failed to score in 25% of away games and concedes 1.38 goals on average away, therefore the probability favors the home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates for Levadia and Flora are 38% each, indicating that historically both teams scoring was uncommon (38% of matches). However, in the last 5 matches both sides had BTTS at 80%, and across those five fixtures each team averaged 2.6 goals (13 goals in 5 matches). xG confirms both teams’ offensive intent: attacking xG 2.02 for Levadia vs 2.20 for Flora, and xG against 1.46 and 1.16 respectively indicates realistic chance creation from both sides; average shots on target 5.88 vs 5.75 also point to chance generation. The counterargument is Levadia’s high share of clean sheets (50%) and their lower season goals conceded 0.88 vs Flora’s 1.38, plus Flora’s lower conversion rate 9% versus Levadia’s 15%, which could reduce BTTS occurrences. Considering the dominant signal from the last 5 matches (80%), high xG for both teams, the league average of 3.02 goals and 75% of matches over 2.5 goals, I forecast BTTS = Yes (approximately 70% vs 30%).

Tallinna FC Levadia scores on average 2.50 goals per game, Flora 1.63, and attacking xG is 2.02 (Levadia) and 2.20 (Flora). xG against is 1.46 for Levadia and 1.16 for Flora; in the last 5 matches each team has scored 13 goals (avg 2.6), i.e. about 5.2 goals combined in their current form. Seasonally both teams have 88% of matches Over 1.5 goals and 75% Over 2.5 goals, therefore I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 at ~90% and Over 2.5 at ~78%. Using a weighted average of attack and defense (attacking xG and xG against) I obtain expected goals of 1.68 for Levadia and 1.92 for Flora (sum 3.60), which supports the forecast for goals above 1.5/2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (selection), because the seasonal 88%, strong attacking form (5.2 goals in the last 5) and xG>2.0 for both teams give the highest confidence; Over 3.5 is considered moderate (46%) with a seasonal 38% for that line.

I tip 1/1: Tallinna FC Levadia leads at the break in 50% of matches and scores an average of 1.38 goals in the first half versus 0.5 for Flora. Season-long averages favor the hosts — Levadia scores 2.5 goals per game and concedes 0.88, while Flora has 1.63 goals for and 1.38 against. In the last 5 fixtures Levadia has won 80% of matches and is averaging 2.6 points per game, whereas Flora has a 60% win rate and 1.8 points per game, which increases the hosts’ likelihood of maintaining a lead at the break. Although Flora posts a slightly higher xG (2.20 vs 2.02), Levadia converts chances more efficiently (conversion rate 15% versus 9%), so the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of leading at the break and winning the match for the home side appears strongest.